Quote:
Originally Posted by GrussGott
Speaking of Class 8 sales, who buys them? i.e., mostly fleets buyers? mostly independent operators? I don't know ... but questions:
(1.) For fleet sales, then the trucks with the easiest, lowest maintenance with the most infrastructure would sell; individual operators might look more at driver features as they may do some of their own maintenance & standardization might not be as important.
(2.) Operator routes driven, i.e., is the semi mostly trans-con routes or intra-state routes? Range, comfort, etc would be sales factors there for both fleet and individuals.
(3.) Operating costs - obvs large fuel savings (or driver costs) would be important
I don't think class 4/5 FSD/AP is gonna be a thing this decade (even though it's technically possible today, that product is too expensive) ... and Tesla must be thinking this way too because lately they're pushing the "train" concept meaning, say, 3 trucks in line and only the 1st truck has a driver ...
Anyway, my question is, who's gonna buy a Tesla Class 8 Semi?  like who's the core customer here? I don't get it probably out of ignorance of the market ... here's what sells now:
Way back in my civil engineering days one of my clients was this badass chick who owned a trucking company with Freightliners ... I just can't see her buying Teslas unless there was a HUGE cost advantage for the range trade-off ... will there be? |
Well, well, well, 5 years on BP and FINALLY a topic I'm actually highly qualified to speak to. I worked for 11 years for one of those companies in your chart...
Fleet sales of Class 8 make up the largest percentage of purchases when you look across all brands. Each brand has a different mix of fleet vs. Owner/Operator. Freightliner is the GM of the Class 8 market. They make their money on volume so it's no surprise they sell a lot of fleet vehicles. Of the manufactures on the chart, Pete is the most bespoke. So they have a higher percentage of O/O sales than Freightliner.
1) You're spot on. Fleets want low operating costs and high up time. A lot of them take the same approach Southwest Airlines takes; Buy only 1 spec of vehicle so you can make repairs, maintenance, etc. easier through standardization. $ per mile is everything to these guys. An O/O on the otherhand tends to care less, as you said, and wants things like 197 individual chrome ringed gauges, chicken lights, headache rack, chrome bumper that weighs 900 pounds, etc. Lots of fleets will buy 95% base model, stripped down, trucks and 5% top of the line. The top of the line with all the bells and whistles go to their most trusted, tenured, drivers as a retention method. "Make a million accident-free miles and get a flashy truck."
2) Both. You have to remember the vehicle class denotes GVW capacity. If you need to tow 80,000 pounds you need a class 8. Doesnt matter if that's interstate, intrastate, or from one end of the street to the other.
3) Correct. Operating costs, fuel being the biggest, is always a concern for fleets. For what they are, a modern class 8 truck is really efficient. 10 MPG, fully loaded, at highway speed is common. If you're running 250,000+ miles per year and you can improve fuel economy by 1% the savings are meaningful.
Anyway, the market for a Class 8 Tesla has got to be short run, intercity transport. Think Airport to Amazon distribution center and back, 4 times a day. In-city stop and go traffic plummets that 10 MPG of a class 8 down to about 2. Your over the road tag-team of 2 drivers can cover 20 hours of driving in a shift and carry enough fuel to not stop. Until Tesla can do 20 hours of straight highway pulling 80,000 pounds gross, there isnt much of a case for it. A true hybrid that can run on batteries up to say 30 MPH, then pivot to diesel, now that could have some merit. a few of the big players like Freightliner and PACCAR worked on that a while back but I'm not sure it went anywhere. i think the challenge is the every pound of batteries you add takes away a pound of cargo.
Where I see HUGE potential is in electric cargo vans. I was stuck at a light in S. Seattle the other day and counted a line of 37 Amazon Prime vans all leaving the DC. I'm looking out my window and there's 2 prime vans on my street right now. Every one of those vans leaves the DC in the morning and returns to the same DC at night. if you can electrify them and get a full day's route out of a charge, then charge at night. Man, that's a winner on so many levels.
