Quote:
Originally Posted by Monkey Throttle
The next 12-18 months should be very exciting with Blackrock, Fidelity and Vanguard all getting ready to push their corporate clients into their new ETF product 
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Better be cautious with
"very exciting" economic markets predictions.
Off-topic: FWIW, from hindsight, the 'yield spread' has been interesting to spot recessions over the past 70 years.
Posted this in July 2019:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Artemis
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Evolution of the 'yield spread' ever since (Nov-Dec 2023):
Today (Jan 2024):
And about the jinxed year 2020:
"Each time since 1960 that the yield spread went negative we were in a recession approximately 12 months later.
Going into 2020, the likelihood of a decline in general business and real estate activities over the next 12 months was already high as the spread dipped below zero in 2019. However, the added pressure of the global pandemic and financial crash pushed what was to be a normal recession into one of larger significance. The potential devastation was too much for the government to bear, and so an unprecedented level of stimulus was injected into the economy, ultimately pushing inflation to rise rapidly, setting up the economy for the next recession."