Quote:
Originally Posted by Tacoma
I'd argue it's not the whole story. We're looking at a kind of feedback loop. While it's true that some enthusiasts are choosing to no longer buy manuals (e.g., because manuals shift slower), it's also true that others may still prefer manuals but unfortunately the car they want isn't offered with a manual, so they are "forced" to buy automatics.
Marketing then sees this data point as more people choosing automatics (even though that may not be the case) and then they offer less models with manuals, giving potential manual buyers even less choice, and so on. Accelerating this loop, new drivers are less likely to drive manuals because less choice of models with available manuals. So the age of manual drivers are getting older.
So an answer to the OP's question "Will this [choosing manuals] continue to be the case for years to come?", I would say, yes, this will continue for years to come, but these die-hard enthusiasts will have no choice but to go to the used car market. And eventually the aforementioned older drivers will just die out and manual cars finally extinct.
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As someone else pointed out, the M2 has a take rate of around 50 percent with the manual.
and yet, go browse the classifieds....the HUUUUGE majority of new M2's for sale are DCT equipped. That means that not only are HALF of buyers getting the manual, they're also willing to sit around for months while their car is built
specifically so they can have that transmission.
There are a ton of people who are 'settling' for an automatic out there. And car companies are actively encouraging this. Why in the name of god would a manufacturer want to engineer a car for 2 transmissions when they can do so for just one? If they can convince the buying public that it's what WE actually wanted, all the better.
Anyway, should be interesting when this all comes back around with self driving cars that can't be driven manually. I bet we have pretty much the same arguments in like 30 years.