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      10-25-2020, 01:07 PM   #4
5.M0NSTER
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We should be looking at other players such as Waymo or Cruise Automation (who work with GM). They already test with no human drivers behind the wheel. They also made a conscious decision to skip Level 3 and go directly to Level 4 because human driver's get dependent on the machine, and don't intervene when needed.

I think those players are a lot closer to full Autonomous driving than Tesla. Why? Because Elon decided that Lidar is not needed. Only cameras. Since that's how humans do it, just visual. And that's great, if you have completely mapped and re-created the part of the human mind responsible for spatial reasoning, orientation, reflexes and decision making base on positioning and relative approach velocities. But we are nowhere close. Machines will need more inputs to recreate human decisions, or to even perceive in a similar way to us. So I think use of Lidar is required today to be autonomous. Waymo, Cruise and Ford have all decided to use Lidar, so they have a shot. In my opinion using camera only is a no-go for full automation in the next 25 years.

If all vehicles are equipped with short range transponders which can indicate relative positions to each other, as well as velocities and angles of approach (or at least enough data so that those can be calculated in near rear time), we can get away from Lidar. But we're nowhere near that today, or in the next decade.

The next step for existing players with array of sensing in place is to teach AI to start taking calculated risks, like human drivers do every day. If a machine is programmed to only make a left turn when it's clear, those cars will never move during rush hour. I think this is the next challenge for AI divers
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