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      11-08-2019, 11:20 PM   #18
Meeni
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Drives: BMW 330i 06
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: TN

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Quote:
Originally Posted by hellrotm View Post
why not make the daily a possible electric. But the chargers at my office are sh*t.
Just charge at home. Beside the trans-america travel you'll do once in your lifetime, you should never need a fast charger.

Quote:
reach over 50% market share, decades from now. I no doubts it will not read the same.
If the germans wake up at that point, they are dead and irrelevant already. The Prius is not even that great, and it still outsells a lot of better hybrid options just on first mover advantage and name recognition. That's just not good business trying to catch-up in an already mature marketplace.

Quote:
Originally Posted by allinon72 View Post
Nearly every auto manufacturer is pouring billions into EV development. They must be working off data that isn't available to the public
It's completely available to the public. Just simple projection on current trends show that the future is electric, because the only current advantages of ICE are eroding quick. ICE is a mature tech with very little growth left in it. Electric is a new tech that is still in the fast improvement curve. In 10 years from now everything we currently dislike about electrics will be resolved
1. range is already partially resolved, improving fast, it's like Moores' law for batteries nowadays.
2. power and driving pleasure is completely resolved, just get the right model. The days of the weird Iseta looking electric cars are gone. Even the dumb futuristic space-age interior trend is receding.
3. charging time is not resolved yet (on production models), but improving fast and lots of growth potential. Concept cars and demonstrators already have fast charging that would put the gas station to shame when one includes the time spent driving to said gas station.
4. cost currently remains a problem, but will get lower over time. At this point, cost of ownership is already positive, even without tax incentive, but the upfront cost is clearly
stopping a lot of sales (hence the small market share at this point). Should get better and better in a very short time frame. When the electric cars are competitive in upfront cost, run-of-the mill ICE econobox are game over, as the segment is super sensitive to the money equation.
5. Weight is a problem without a foreseable solution at this point, but not clear how much it really matters given that you can still get strong acceleration (electric torque), good fuel efficiency (regenerative braking), and good dynamic handling (low center of gravity).

With these trends clearly visible by simple extrapolation of current tech and business practices, a company that would not divert most of its R&D toward being part of that revolution would be dead stupid, and probably out of business in 10 years.


I love my growling I6 as much as everyone else around here, I bought the damn thing with my hard earned cash instead of getting a Toyota Carmy of some sort that would make more financial sense, for the only reason that the I6 is more fun. But these are just facts and trends that cannot be ignored, because the money will speak, and electric cars will be cheaper, better, and dare I say, probably more interesting/fun products in all aspects (except auditory? Even then there is some value in gliding at high speed in quiet silence). When consumers notice, it will be a blood bath for those manufacturers that are not prepared.


There's one thing I didn't like about the cited article, is that they mangle autonomous driving and electric vehicles. These two things are orthogonal and we could very well have one without the other. It is not that different having autonomous electric or ICE cars, and electric cars can be driven without any special need for automation. It is also very plausible that the companies providing autonomous driving are not the same as the companies developing the electric drivetrain/chassis. Bosh and Valeo are providing most of the electronic for current german/french cars, they are not household names. Could very well be the same for autonomous software being just provided by an 'anonymous' supplier to multiple manufacturers, that could be substituted at the whim of corporate contracts, just like some of our e90 comes with transmissions from ZF or GM, and very few people notice or care.

Last edited by Meeni; 11-08-2019 at 11:52 PM..
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