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      07-12-2017, 02:38 PM   #56
Viffermike
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dthltm View Post
I think it is ridiculously stupid to think Tesla won't be around in 10 years. A better argument will be they don't make cars anymore in 10 years. Strategically, they aren't a car company...they are an alternative energy and infrastructure/energy company that uses cars as a conduit to sell batteries. Musk is enough of a visionary and a smart guy to keep them from going belly up. I think they are a game changer and hope the OP saves this thread and comes back and posts in 10 years how he is wrong. I'll do the same if they file chapter 11.
This. I've been telling people this since the original Roadster came out nearly 10 years ago, because Musk himself was saying the same thing at the time: Tesla is not a car company. It is an energy company that happens to be using cars as a test bed for technology.

The real question is in bold above. I personally think it will be phasing out user-operable cars at that point, if not sooner, because by then its battery, autonomous, and infrastructure businesses will far, far exceed the cars in revenue -- IF everything goes roughly to plan.

As for Tesla's value: Yes it's overvalued, and the Model 3 is absolutely key to Tesla's long-term viability. But not for the reasons most assume -- it's a mammoth social experiment, really, that is helping fuel (pun intended) what will sustain Tesla into the 2030s: batteries, autonomous vehicles, and a continued privatization of electricity delivery both in the U.S. and outside of it.

Remember: Though Tesla is a U.S.-based company with a focus on the U.S. market, it's vision is global. (Hell: throw Space X in there, and it's potentially Martian!) Just think what a country with large swaths of relatively new utility infrastructure like China could do ... or an overbuilt infrastructure like Japan's -- or a ready-to-be-developed one like India's (if it can ever figure out how to tax its citizenry). Musk is a visionary, yes -- and he's not just eyeing EVs, or just the U.S., or just anything. He's looking 20-40 years down the road, and always has.
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