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      03-03-2018, 06:27 AM   #369
Bt12
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Drives: 2018 X5,2018 m2, 2018 x1
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Viffermike View Post
It's not that simple. What use does a farmer have for an EV? Or a rancher? Or a construction worker? A contractor? Or a single mother of three who works multiple jobs to keep her kids fed and out of trouble?

The problem is also socioeconomic. Please tell me how a janitor who drives a 10-year-old Dodge Ram pickup to work is going to find a way to have an EV. There are tens of millions of these salt-of-the-earth people in our country, and most have absolutely no use or desire for an EV -- in fact, owning one would be a significant hindrance until the EV's practical viability is comparable to an ICE in nearly all measures.

I think what you are referring to is the car stock that will still be around. Penetration conversations are focused on car units Sold. Vs what’s in the system. I think when most talk about ev’s Taking over... full penetration is near middle of this century. That said the car stock will be around.

In your example...that portion of the population will be able to still either buy used ice engines OR the cost of EV’s will be low enogih.

One of the things I think people miss when they do the ice vs ev analysis is they hold ICE prices flat and not inflate the price while keeping the ice price flat and not deflate it. Remember the same ev technology used in auto will lightweight vehicles and be used for aero taxi’s as well.


That said... unemployment rate in US is 4%... trump is supposedly helping the salt of the earth people. Depreciating the dollar and implementing tariff’s... I’m not firm this helps but if t does. Blue collar workers should see further tailwind.


10 years everyone will be able to buy a ev cheaper.


Btw... farmer - ag cycle is at the bottom of the cycle and there are grain subsidies. I know farmers that minted money in the late 2000’s. They were buying $500k combines and such.

Construction worker- they are crushing it-case Schiller goes up 5% annually, inventory is low and labor is really tight in this segment. The export of illegal workers likely tighten thisgroup even more.

Single mother- I feel for this the most...but there are social programs to help support this family, there is or should be.

Last edited by Bt12; 03-03-2018 at 06:34 AM..