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      11-27-2017, 11:33 AM   #303
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Originally Posted by N52UNED View Post
Tesla being gone in 10 years isn't out of the realm of possibility ... but the probability is likely not. Although I do see a governmental bailout at some point.

Currently EV is the hottest topic in the car industry, and Tesla is showing that there's promise for the platform. He's entrenching himself with states like Nevada where he's building his gigafactory, bringing thousands of good paying jobs to the area. Then there's the fact that breaking the nation's dependency on fossil fuels is a goal that this or any other nation is not willing to let go of anytime soon (regardless of the vehicles being better for the environment in the long run or not). This is where the bailout will come in.

Heck major manufacturers aren't putting their eggs into the Formula E for nothing.

What I do see as a definite issue that will slow the Tesla train is the lack of charging stations. Sure you can pump out a shit tonne of cars ... but if people have to jump through hoops to "refuel/recharge" this will definitely slow the company's growth potential over the next decade. Currently Tesla has a very small market segment, and unless charging stations become accessible in every town and multiple in larger markets ... the platform will stagnate. After a while buyers will become disenchanted with the platform.

At the current pricing ... Telsa's are quite expensive for being a One-Trick-Pony -- an "about town commuter's vehicle." Even if Tesla makes a car that is in the mid-$30k's ... that's still a lot of scratch for most consumers to pay for a limited use vehicle. For the same price someone can buy a fossil fuel burning vehicle that they can drive anywhere without having to plan the trip based upon proximity to charging stations ... as well as, the downtime it takes to recharge.

Then there's their buyer market ... tech orientated urbanites with higher household incomes that like to think they're environmentally conscious. Does anyone believe they're going to hold onto a 4-5 year old Tesla? Heck No! These cars are going to become as obsolete as an iPhone 4 in the same number of years. So now there's a question of their overall reliability, cost of maintenance, and resale value.

In the next 10 years ... If Tesla's turn out to be as reliable as a '80's Hyundai Excel ... they're sunk. If they're too expensive to repair ... they're sunk. If there's no market for used high mile Tesla's ... they're sunk. Unless Tesla starts making their cars quicker to recharge and builds up their infrastructure of charging stations and repair shops ... they're going to stagnate and ultimately be bought out by one of the Big 3 (best case scenario).

Tesla being gone in 10 years is a bit questionable .... but 15 is more likely, IMO.
All of the issues you point out are demand issues. IMO, Tesla's biggest issue is Supply and economies of scale to become profitable. No doubt there are a lot of people and governments that want EVs, but the companies that can produce EVs in numbers and sustainably will be the ones that win.

Cars/SUVs usually have 5-7 years between new generations, within the next few years when the big autos begin to profitably produce EVs and outsell Tesla with their new gen cars, that will be the demise of Tesla unless they turn their operations around.