Quote:
Originally Posted by KRS_SN
there is about to be an explosion of choice because govts are banning ICE and tesla eats a part of the common pie.
Shares are valued at tesla eating the pie alone.
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Exactly, just like Apple's. In cell phones remember Blackberry, Nokia, Ericksson, LG, Motorola, Microsoft, et al?
Look at your phone, what kind is it? I bet it's an Apple even though you had lots of choices, so why didn't you take them? Because net-net they were worse choices and Apple has better software and a better eco-system.
It's is why "The Bigs" argument fails - and why The Bigs failed for cell phones:
Despite The Bigs knowing how to put together the hardware better and cheaper than anyone (incl apple), and despite all their distribution and cellular network expertise, they couldn't overcome Apple's software. And not just the UI, though that's huge, also the cloud services, i.e., the store.
In Silicon Valley speak, Apple disintermediated the consumer from the hardware and the network - consumers flocked to the UI and the rest of it became a commodity. In the non-Apple phone market, even the mighty Samsung can't win consumers with their hardware alone - know anybody with a Tizen OS? Do you even know what Tizen is? Probably not.
Back to cars, The Bigs might be able to screw together better hardware but their software SUCKS:
"[The] biggest weakest is the infotainment system, the software, it's too slow, sometimes it's failing, they need to fix it ... the hardware of the vehicle is really excellent"
And this software problem is not unique to the ID.4 - every VW BEV has had this problem and this is the largest auto manufacturer in the World. Sounds easy, though, right? Just fix the software!
How'd that work out for the phone Bigs?
The problem comes back to leadership and focus - Tesla realized from the start, it's the software stupid and they build an entire organization around the software (UI, energy storage & management, cloud). Every top auto software engineer wants to work for Tesla, and most are, because that's where the action and rewards are. The Bigs have software 'C' & 'D' engineers because the 'A's are at Tesla, and the 'B's get fed up with bureaucracy and leave for other industries. (and the same is true for BEV auto engineers)
And, again, Tesla could just stop selling cars altogether and just sell their software and batteries to others, but they won't because they can't make enough cars right now:
I see Tesla as a volatile trade, so I wouldn't own it (except via index), but that's simply because it's hard to predict how the bowling pins will bounce around and push back on Tesla - that said, there's no doubt in my mind that Tesla is the bowling ball and The Bigs are the pins.