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      02-19-2012, 11:34 AM   #25
Lieutenant Colonel

Drives: 2010 E92 335i 6MT
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: US

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Originally Posted by PINeely View Post
When I played that game in early '09 I put it mostly in Baidu which is like a Chinese google. Not sure how they are now but my team finished second in the state. As others have said Apple would be a good bet now.
Most of the money has already been made on AAPL, at least in the short term. It took out the $500 barrier in short order after posting a blowout quarter never seen before. Even if it moves through $600, it's only 20% gain from these levels. There are going to be many stocks out there that gain much more than 20% and do so sooner than AAPL. Finding which ones will be the hard part. For example, BAC is up about 60% from its low and AAPL is only up about 33% during the same period.

AAPL was my best trade last year, but I wouldn't be itching to buy it at $505 unless you had a pretty long term horizon. Even then, the law of large numbers HAS to start playing a role in the stock and in the company. I could be wrong, but are you confident that in 5-10 years, AAPL will still be the leader in tech? Tech is so fragile that it's hard to say because the consumer is fickle. AAPL makes devices that are hot right now. Products come and go. I believe AAPL can be humbled as quickly as they rose to prominence.

BTW, AAPL is one of my favorite companies, but they are more susceptible to competition than some other leading companies who have been leaders for longer and have higher barriers to entry.

Last edited by BayMoWe335; 02-19-2012 at 11:45 AM..