08-08-2017, 12:03 AM | #1 | |
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Continental: German automakers will stop developing combustion engines in six years
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http://europe.autonews.com/article/2...engines-in-six |
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08-08-2017, 04:53 AM | #4 | |
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I'll wager that most who think recent clean diesel (in this case by BMW) designs are worse haven't looked at the data comparing the choices, which is generally not published when writing about how bad ICE's are. It will take a lot more infrastructure cost to improve our current "freedom to move about" system built over 140 years to convert the public to the centralized planning and control of EV's and autonomous cars. PL |
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08-08-2017, 06:25 AM | #5 |
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I saw this and while it is reasonable to assert that we are in the twilight years of ICE development, I'm not sure I would buy into this timeline yet. Consider that the supplier who is making this claim sells parts for diesel engines (as noted in the article). No doubt that, given all the recent backlash, diesel engines are in jeopardy in the coming decade. But gasoline engines will pair with electric engines for range extenders and PHEV for years to come.
Even when major development stops on ICE, existing engines (especially small displacement ones) will be with us for many more years. Another recent article suggests Mazda will bring HCCI to market in two years. This will likely extend the life of their SkyActiv engine family for another decade plus. Though, unless someone does a camless valvetrain, this may indeed be the last major ICE innovation to hit production vehicles. But even if that is the case, it should come as no surprise that ICE development will slow as hybrids become more prolific. The less the role the ICE plays in powering the vehicle, the less it makes sense to further optimize it. You optimize the part of the system that is the bottleneck and at some point the equation tips in favor of putting the R&D on the electric motor and whatever is supplying electricity to it (battery, fuel cell, or something else yet to come). With this in mind, I'd say 2040 is a reasonable timeframe for the end of ICE sales in some regions for what we in the US call light trucks and passengers cars. I'm not sure it can happen in the US itself by then, but 2050 seems at least plausible (not necessarily what I would put my money on, however). |
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08-08-2017, 06:52 AM | #6 |
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I think the reports of the death of the ICE are being greatly exaggerated. EV's or some iteration of them is coming and will slowly take more market share no doubt. But I think the infrastructure to support them has a long way to go, that and range anxiety will slow the transition despite what the fanboy's keep telling us.
A while back when the push started hard here by government in Ontario, Toronto Hydro came out and said that the infrastructure could not support charging if 10% of the cars on the road were EV's. I know the argument is that most people will be charging overnight when other demands are low but realistically if everyone is charging overnight then the demand on the system in traditionally low demand times makes overnight a high demand time. Theres also the issue that in many cities like Toronto, older homes don't have a driveway or place to park near your house, how will you plug in if you have to park a block away from home because that's the only street parking you can find. Another issue that isn't talked about is "quick charging stations", the notion that these can keep cars on the road for longer trips is great, and with the low volumes of EV's I suspect that arriving at one and plugging in for a 30 min 90 km top up works pretty good, but as EV's begin taking up more of the market I can see line ups for the charger in the future, your 30 min charge up might be preceded by a 90 min wait for the 3 EV's ahead of you. Some of the biggest polluters aren't highly efficient cars, but transport trucks, freight trains, passenger/freight aircraft and cargo ships. I don't see battery EV technology addressing those issues anytime soon. Just my two cents...... |
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08-08-2017, 09:19 AM | #8 | |
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There is a lot of talk in the present about aggressive legislation, but no government (well, no government of any reasonable nation) is going to pass sweeping rules banning ICE sales unless/until both they and the people are prepared for it. Some countries may be ready for this to happen very soon. For others, this could still be decades away. In the US, for example, the government has CAFE and, at least in the near term, it is likely to continue to leverage that as a means to incentivize automakers to bring more efficient vehicles to market. At some point, hybrid powertrains become the most cost effective way to achieve the ever rising CAFE goals, and at that point all new vehicles (all light trucks and passenger cars, I mean) have an electric motor of some kind in their drivetrain. Then it just becomes a gradual march toward giving the (more and more powerful) electric motor full duty of propelling the car. Eventually, only when infrastructure is there and other factors fall into place, the ICE can be removed completely. Sure, in the meantime, there will be EV out there for early adopters, but this is the type of transition that needs to happen to get everyone on board. |
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08-08-2017, 10:02 AM | #9 | ||
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08-08-2017, 10:28 AM | #10 |
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Unless battery tech improves 10 fold in next 6 years, I don't see it happening. For someone in the US to have their only car be electric, range and/or charging time needs to improve drastically. The infrastructure in the US will not be ready in 6 years.
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08-08-2017, 12:48 PM | #13 |
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Of course this can't happen this soon, it would be devastating for the environment. While coal is no longer the primary source of fuel for power generation, it remains the overwhelming dominant fuel to meet secondary demand. All these EV's plugged into the grid will require continued use of coal fired electricity at a rate that will generate far higher carbon emission than what is saved by a reduction in gas powered engines.
I am so tired of the complete lack of actual scientific environmental fact in the EV debate. Lithium production causes environmental damage. Battery disposal causes environmental damage. Clean power generation (from hydro, to solar, to wind) all have environmental impacts. And, there is no such thing as "clean coal". EV's do not portend environmental salvation nor do they augur significant carbon reduction. Those big trucks that move goods? Those big ships that move goods? Those big planes that move people and goods? Shouldn't those impacts be part of the debate? It's time for factual debate instead of Elon Musk kool-aid. |
08-08-2017, 01:12 PM | #14 | |
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No German company has had that kind of issue. Besides: German law can only apply to cars made for the German market, which is relatively minuscule compared to the world market. I guarantee you many parts of Asia, South America, and Eastern Europe (among other areas) will not be able to support EVs or hybrids for decades. Decades. Germany can't force that. No nation can.
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08-08-2017, 01:18 PM | #15 |
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I'm not so sure about that. Tesla has done a nice job of implementing super chargers around the country. The time it takes for a battery to charge is still significant, though.
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08-08-2017, 01:39 PM | #16 |
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How much does that really matter though when you leave home with a "full tank" every day.
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08-08-2017, 02:26 PM | #17 | |
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Stop looking at the trees and consider the forest, with the knowledge that most trees have little to no value when cut down.
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08-08-2017, 02:44 PM | #18 | ||
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But sure, um, ok, I am certainly not going to debate you about the veracity of said claim. |
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08-08-2017, 02:46 PM | #19 | |
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The stories I could tell you... |
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08-08-2017, 02:54 PM | #20 |
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... they will end up with a hybrid (gas/elec). Problem solved.
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08-08-2017, 03:08 PM | #21 |
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08-08-2017, 05:29 PM | #22 | |
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My friend drove up to visit and needed to charge his car for a few hours before heading home... he used an app to find charging stations and drove around (wasting charge) to a few charging points before we found an open charger. Most were occupied with EVs already. After dropping his EV off, we drove to eat (in my gas car) so he can charge and I dropped him off afterwards to pick up his car... Total waste of time, he vowed never to drive his EV up to visit me again.
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