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      04-25-2024, 02:00 PM   #1
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Allocation likelihood?

First time poster trying to get a sense of 2025 Z4 (manual) timelines. I'm in a unique situation where I have to purchase a car by September because of a sales incentive through my employer. It's a large bonus that has to be used on the purchase of a new vehicle that's delivered by the deadline or the bonus is forfeited.

I placed an order for a manual Z4 in February, as soon as the order guides were released, and my local dealer (midsize Midwestern city) said I am first on their list. I was initially optimistic, but it seems that the demand is outstripping the supply and I'm worried the allocation won't come or come too late. Even if I get the allocation by June or July, it may not be delivered in time. My local Porsche dealer is getting in a Boxster that's nicely spec'd and I'm tempted to snatch that up if the Z4 allocation isn't going to happen...

I'm not getting any guidance from my CA. How long should I wait before considering other options? Is there anyone at BMW NA that could give me a realistic picture of my chances? Thanks for any information or opinions!
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      04-25-2024, 02:53 PM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DrMaths View Post
First time poster trying to get a sense of 2025 Z4 (manual) timelines. I'm in a unique situation where I have to purchase a car by September because of a sales incentive through my employer. It's a large bonus that has to be used on the purchase of a new vehicle that's delivered by the deadline or the bonus is forfeited.

I placed an order for a manual Z4 in February, as soon as the order guides were released, and my local dealer (midsize Midwestern city) said I am first on their list. I was initially optimistic, but it seems that the demand is outstripping the supply and I'm worried the allocation won't come or come too late. Even if I get the allocation by June or July, it may not be delivered in time. My local Porsche dealer is getting in a Boxster that's nicely spec'd and I'm tempted to snatch that up if the Z4 allocation isn't going to happen...

I'm not getting any guidance from my CA. How long should I wait before considering other options? Is there anyone at BMW NA that could give me a realistic picture of my chances? Thanks for any information or opinions!
I’d reach out to some other dealers or a broker.

Otherwise, could wait for one to pop up on a dealer lot if you’re not as concerned about exact specs.
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      04-25-2024, 03:56 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RigaTony1982 View Post
I’d reach out to some other dealers or a broker.

Otherwise, could wait for one to pop up on a dealer lot if you’re not as concerned about exact specs.
I like the broker approach!
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      04-25-2024, 04:26 PM   #4
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Ugh, if the dealer's not helping you then you are somewhat stuck. But, even then, it'd probably just be a guess on their part and whatever they said may not end up as reality.

You might keep with where you are, agreed, and in the mean time 1) Look for one for sale that has been delivered, 2) Look in other posts here for a car that can be had if you like thundernight w/ red (user Justinhemi), 3) Have a different car in mind as a backup plan, something you can get by your deadline.
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      04-25-2024, 04:44 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RigaTony1982 View Post
Otherwise, could wait for one to pop up on a dealer lot if you’re not as concerned about exact specs.
A manual showing up on a dealer lot any time soon may be a long shot. I don't anticipate many who ordered a manual to be pulling out of their order.
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      04-25-2024, 04:45 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DrMaths View Post
My local Porsche dealer is getting in a Boxster that's nicely spec'd and I'm tempted to snatch that up if the Z4 allocation isn't going to happen...
718 is a nice car. Which model though? GTS? Grab it in a heartbeat. H4s? Ask yourself if you like the sound of an expensive Subaru.
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      04-25-2024, 05:13 PM   #7
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Originally Posted by StanDiego View Post
A manual showing up on a dealer lot any time soon may be a long shot. I don't anticipate many who ordered a manual to be pulling out of their order.
True, but not every car is a direct customer order.
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      04-25-2024, 06:53 PM   #8
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Anecdotally, it doesn't seem like any allocations have been released in the past 45 days or so based on posts in here. Most deliveries seem to be an initial batch that are just hitting the US this week and next (or later).
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      04-25-2024, 07:23 PM   #9
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Thanks for the responses, including the idea of a broker. My assumption was that there wouldn't be any arriving on lots in the near future if there were unfulfilled custom orders. That is, I assumed that no production would be reserved for dealer orders if there is a waiting list of deposited orders. I would be open to other colors/options, as long as it had a manual.

The Boxster is just the 2.0L, which is why I would love to have the Z4, but the Boxster still holds appeal in many other regards.

It's interesting that no allocations seems to have been released recently. The salesman at the Porsche dealer said he heard there were supply issues with the Z4 right now (he knows it's my first choice). Obviously, I take what he says with a grain of salt, but it does seem like there are a lot more orders than they can handle.
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      04-25-2024, 09:10 PM   #10
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When I ordered my car last year (used a broker), I was told that M40 allocations were tough to come by. I’d imagine with the manual it’s even harder.
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      04-25-2024, 11:10 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RigaTony1982 View Post
When I ordered my car last year (used a broker), I was told that M40 allocations were tough to come by. I’d imagine with the manual it’s even harder.
They're the same allocation for any M40, manual or automatic.

And that wasn't my experience, my dealer traded it to some other dealer for an SUV allocation within a day (I ordered last August, took delivery December).
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      04-25-2024, 11:10 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RigaTony1982 View Post
When I ordered my car last year (used a broker), I was told that M40 allocations were tough to come by. I’d imagine with the manual it’s even harder.
I thought I'd read in other posts the allocations don't distinguish manual from automatic, not sure about s30i from M40i.
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      04-26-2024, 08:41 AM   #13
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Sorry, think my post was a little confusing. Agreed there's no separate allocations for manual or automatic. What I was trying to say is that in general, I was told the M40i allocations can be tough to come by. This was last year, before there was a manual. Now you have the demand for the manual added into the mix.
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      04-26-2024, 10:01 PM   #14
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This will make me very sad if they run out of allocations before i can even get one. My dealer has one other buyer and he is still waiting for an allocation. If when the time comes that i can place an order none are left or i have to wait a year the I will get an M2. I will be ready to order mid june. As long as i can get a production number before my current lease is up i can get up to 6 month extension so i am still very much expecting to be able to get one. But if not I have to say i really do like the looks of the M2 and it would help heal my broken heart if i can’t get a Z4.
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      04-26-2024, 10:02 PM   #15
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Originally Posted by mdoneinvt View Post
This will make me very sad if they run out of allocations before i can even get one. My dealer has one other buyer and he is still waiting for an allocation. If when the time comes that i can place an order none are left or i have to wait a year the I will get an M2. I will be ready to order mid june. As long as i can get a production number before my current lease is up i can get up to 6 month extension so i am still very much expecting to be able to get one. But if not I have to say i really do like the looks of the M2 and it would help heal my broken heart if i can’t get a Z4.
I passed a black M2 tonight on my way to dinner. Very good looking car, and I think you can’t go wrong either way!
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      04-27-2024, 06:03 AM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DrMaths View Post
First time poster trying to get a sense of 2025 Z4 (manual) timelines. I'm in a unique situation where I have to purchase a car by September because of a sales incentive through my employer. It's a large bonus that has to be used on the purchase of a new vehicle that's delivered by the deadline or the bonus is forfeited.

I placed an order for a manual Z4 in February, as soon as the order guides were released, and my local dealer (midsize Midwestern city) said I am first on their list. I was initially optimistic, but it seems that the demand is outstripping the supply and I'm worried the allocation won't come or come too late. Even if I get the allocation by June or July, it may not be delivered in time. My local Porsche dealer is getting in a Boxster that's nicely spec'd and I'm tempted to snatch that up if the Z4 allocation isn't going to happen...

I'm not getting any guidance from my CA. How long should I wait before considering other options? Is there anyone at BMW NA that could give me a realistic picture of my chances? Thanks for any information or opinions!
I sent you a PM regarding this post.
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      04-27-2024, 06:07 AM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RigaTony1982 View Post
I passed a black M2 tonight on my way to dinner. Very good looking car, and I think you can’t go wrong either way!
The funny thing is when i got mine almost 3 years ago I kept getting surveys and still do and the one thing i kept telling them was if they made a manual Z4 i would trade mine for one as soon as was possible. And now they have made it hopefully it will be in the cards to get one. But as many years of life has taught me just play the cards your dealt and go with it. That philosophy has not let me down yet.
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      04-27-2024, 07:36 PM   #18
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Wanted to give an update here for those following along. A very kind forum member reached out that his dealership had a few allocations that had gone into production without being spoken for. He connected me with his CA and I am going to pick up a frozen green Z4 in a few weeks! I had ordered san remo, but even with the added cost of frozen paint and more PPF, it's still significantly cheaper than the Boxster that I was considering. Everything else about the specifications were essentially what I ordered and I couldn't be more excited! It is a few states over, but as luck would have it, it's not too far from family that my spouse and I can visit on the way.

A few takeaways: Some dealerships received multiple allocations in the initial batch, even if there weren't deposited orders, so it does seem that at least a few manual Z4s will hit dealer lots. The CA who we worked with estimates that fewer than 200 manual Z4s will make it stateside this calendar year. Assuming this is true, then the number of dealers across the US means there will be some dealers that don't receive any here in 2024. I suspect my local dealer in a midsize city may be one of those to not receive an allocation, but now I don't have to sweat it out. Thank you to everyone here for their input and assistance.
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      04-27-2024, 08:16 PM   #19
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Funny, it's possible you beat out some of us that got allocations.

Congrats! I suppose you already know to take pictures and tell us what you think about it.
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      04-28-2024, 10:11 PM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FrostyWinters View Post
718 is a nice car. Which model though? GTS? Grab it in a heartbeat. H4s? Ask yourself if you like the sound of an expensive Subaru.
Remember 718 AND Z4 are different cars and price difference is more than 30k + Porsche stupid ADM for the same power cars, something to keep in mind
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      05-05-2024, 06:27 PM   #21
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In case it's useful to somebody, one of the dealers I reached out to a few months ago has contacted me about an allocation they just received (which I no longer need).

You can contact Kenton Hamel at Gebhardt BWM in Colorado if you're still looking for one.
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      05-05-2024, 06:52 PM   #22
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Congrats on the buy. For next time think about this.

Dealers that sell a lot of cars get allocations. Dealers that don't get passed by.

Salesmen that you get no satisfactaion from have nothing to sell and hope to string you along till they do.

If you were told you were #1 on the list the dealer either has no allocations & is hoping for one or he had one or more & sold then to one of the other guys he told were #1.
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