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      04-02-2020, 01:12 AM   #3609
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https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/31/o...servatism.html
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[O]n the fringes of the right, among QAnon devotees and believers in the satanic depravity of liberalism, the only psychology that matters is paranoia, not conservatism. And their minimizing response to the coronavirus illustrates the unwillingness of the conspiratorial mind to ever take yes for an answer — meaning that even true events that seem to vindicate a somewhat paranoid worldview will be dismissed as not true enough, not the deepest truth, not the Grandest of All Grand Conspiracies that will someday (someday) be unraveled.
...
This is where the pandemic-minimizing sort of conservative has ended up. They are confronted with a world crisis tailor-made for an anti-globalization, anti-deep-state worldview — a crisis in which China lit the fuse, the World Health Organization ran interference for Beijing, the American public health bureaucracy botched its one essential job, pious anti-racism inhibited an early public-health response, and outsourcing and offshoring left our economy exposed.

And their response? Too simple: Just a feint, a false flag, another deep state plot or power grab, another hoax to take down Trump. It can’t be real unless Hillary Clinton is somehow at the bottom of it.
Note that Douthat is NYT's token conservative.
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      04-02-2020, 01:24 AM   #3610
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Does anyone know if hospitals will accept N95 masks with exhaust valves for donation? I found a few I bought last year. Normally they are not used because they don't protect anyone but the wearer.
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      04-02-2020, 01:52 AM   #3611
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When Fox News doesn't vet the interviewee to their standards:
https://video.foxnews.com/v/6146422347001#sp=show-clips
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      04-02-2020, 02:29 AM   #3612
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ynguldyn View Post
When Fox News doesn't vet the interviewee to their standards:
https://video.foxnews.com/v/6146422347001#sp=show-clips
Well, I'm sure he'll never be back.

They will probably be more careful to not allow too many professionals on going forward. Maybe they can get that quack to come on and talk about his 100% cure rate with hydroxycholorquine. They already have Dr. Oz on, why not?
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      04-02-2020, 05:58 AM   #3613
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Originally Posted by ynguldyn View Post
https://covidtracking.com/data/us-daily

Two weeks ago, the positives were at 10% of all tests. Today it's 17%. This means the testing is not scaling fast enough. Until testing coverage improves, be sceptical if the growth of the number of cases slows down.
8% in my state, also an increase which I think means that they are getting better at determining who gets a test. 92% negative means we are testing a lot of people who we shouldnít be, wasting all kinds of resources.
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      04-02-2020, 06:30 AM   #3614
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      04-02-2020, 06:55 AM   #3615
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chris719 View Post
Does anyone know if hospitals will accept N95 masks with exhaust valves for donation? I found a few I bought last year. Normally they are not used because they don't protect anyone but the wearer.
Call the hospital and ask.
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      04-02-2020, 07:11 AM   #3616
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Originally Posted by NickyC View Post
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Originally Posted by MKSixer View Post
You'd be amazed, people do insane things in these times. During the great flood of 1993 here in St. Louis, some nutjob took his boat and rammed a levee with the intention of making the flood waters worse.

Some people just love to watch the world burn.
Some people have mental health issues that are exasperated during these times.

"Federal prosecutors allege train engineer Eduardo Moreno, 44, of San Pedro intended to hit the ship, saying he thought it was "suspicious" and did not believe "the ship is what they say it's for.'"
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      04-02-2020, 07:53 AM   #3617
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Holy shit, job losses even worse than some of the highest estimates. 6.6 million this week alone, bringing two week total to ten million.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/02/week...ss-claims.html

“We bankrupted some folks”
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      04-02-2020, 08:17 AM   #3618
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^fundamentals in the economy are strong 😂...

i see the dow at 15k in a few weeks
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      04-02-2020, 08:30 AM   #3619
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ynguldyn View Post
When Fox News doesn't vet the interviewee to their standards:
https://video.foxnews.com/v/6146422347001#sp=show-clips
You know what thatís called? Fair and Balanced. FOX isnít afraid to have different views on topics unlike some of the other news outlets who all speak the same exact mantra.
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      04-02-2020, 08:42 AM   #3620
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Originally Posted by ASAP View Post
^fundamentals in the economy are strong 😂...

i see the dow at 15k in a few weeks
I wonít predict the Dow, but it isnít wrong to say the fundamentals in the economy are strong. An analogy would be saying Iím really fit and healthy, but Iíve caught a bad cold and will rest a few days, etc. Then Iíll get up and regain my strength and carry on. The economy was very strong going into this, which will help us get through it (resources are higher). But there is already a lot of pain and more to come.

Offsetting the pain is the enhanced unemployment insurance, stimulus payments and the SBA loans/grants in the most recent act (signed last week). And the work has already begun on the fourth stimulus bill, which likely will focus on state government support (they have high expenses and low tax revenue through this), and maybe some other core support (landlords who are letting rent slide but have to pay their mortgages including commercial landlords, utilities that have given up late charges and are not shutting off customers in arrears (still providing service but not getting paid), etc.).

When we come out of this we will have a lot of new debt, but on the bright side it will be pretty low interest rates. Ultimately tax increases will be needed to repay it.

All that said, the longer we remain on partial shut down, the deeper the problem gets and the harder it will be to come out of it - because more businesses will fail (and not be quickly restarted or replaced) and more individuals will be very strapped. Time is our enemy for the economy but our friend for controlling the disease spread.
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      04-02-2020, 08:52 AM   #3621
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Must be so proud of themselves. Amazing how fast they embrace the chains, holy crap are governments learning a lot about how subservient the masses are.

https://apnews.com/343ed4a8e95dfc8f8dda87b9e450ca57
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      04-02-2020, 08:55 AM   #3622
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 2000cs View Post
I wonít predict the Dow, but it isnít wrong to say the fundamentals in the economy are strong. An analogy would be saying Iím really fit and healthy, but Iíve caught a bad cold and will rest a few days, etc. Then Iíll get up and regain my strength and carry on. The economy was very strong going into this, which will help us get through it (resources are higher). But there is already a lot of pain and more to come.
Most folks Ive spoken with about the economic impact are predicting (with a healthy dose of hoping) that this will be a "V-curve" when plotted out. The economy falls sharp and deep, hits bottom, then rockets straight back up with as much ferocity as it fell. None of these guys are taking into account the reality that we are almost certainly in for several "rounds" of this where the new infection curve flattens so we ease up on restrictions People go back to work and out to eat. The new infection rate begins to creep back up again and restrictions are tightened. 3 to 4 rounds of this over the next 12 to 18 months is what I'm hearing from experts I trust.
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      04-02-2020, 08:57 AM   #3623
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Wow. You folks see we've now closed in to within a couple thousand of doubling the infection rate of Italy? Just last week were were creeping up to match their numbers. Now we are double.

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashb...23467b48e9ecf6

Good news for me, Washington is now in 10th place for total number of infections. Was in 8th yesterday and 7th the day before.
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      04-02-2020, 08:59 AM   #3624
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DETRoadster View Post
Wow. You folks see we've now doubled the infection rate of Italy? Just last week were were creeping up to their numbers. Now we are double.

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashb...23467b48e9ecf6
Well we’re a much larger country so I imagine it’s to be expected? No doubt the true infection rate is grossly higher due to the vast majority of people who show mild symptoms along with those who show none at all.
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      04-02-2020, 09:04 AM   #3625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NickyC View Post
Well weíre a much larger country so I imagine itís to be expected? No doubt the true infection rate is grossly higher due to the vast majority of people who show mild symptoms along with those who show none at all.
We are much larger indeed. it's the rate at which we shot past that stunned me, not so much the fact that we passed.

Also, keep in mind, Italy has a massive, widespread, testing mechanism in place. I suspect the bulk of our "confirmed" cases represent hospital admissions.
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      04-02-2020, 09:07 AM   #3626
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 2000cs View Post
I wonít predict the Dow, but it isnít wrong to say the fundamentals in the economy are strong. An analogy would be saying Iím really fit and healthy, but Iíve caught a bad cold and will rest a few days, etc. Then Iíll get up and regain my strength and carry on. The economy was very strong going into this, which will help us get through it (resources are higher). But there is already a lot of pain and more to come.

Offsetting the pain is the enhanced unemployment insurance, stimulus payments and the SBA loans/grants in the most recent act (signed last week). And the work has already begun on the fourth stimulus bill, which likely will focus on state government support (they have high expenses and low tax revenue through this), and maybe some other core support (landlords who are letting rent slide but have to pay their mortgages including commercial landlords, utilities that have given up late charges and are not shutting off customers in arrears (still providing service but not getting paid), etc.).

When we come out of this we will have a lot of new debt, but on the bright side it will be pretty low interest rates. Ultimately tax increases will be needed to repay it.

All that said, the longer we remain on partial shut down, the deeper the problem gets and the harder it will be to come out of it - because more businesses will fail (and not be quickly restarted or replaced) and more individuals will be very strapped. Time is our enemy for the economy but our friend for controlling the disease spread.
I am just blown away that no one thinks the market was overpriced before this happened...
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      04-02-2020, 09:07 AM   #3627
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DETRoadster View Post
Most folks Ive spoken with about the economic impact are predicting (with a healthy dose of hoping) that this will be a "V-curve" when plotted out. The economy falls sharp and deep, hits bottom, then rockets straight back up with as much ferocity as it fell. None of these guys are taking into account the reality that we are almost certainly in for several "rounds" of this where the new infection curve flattens so we ease up on restrictions People go back to work and out to eat. The new infection rate begins to creep back up again and restrictions are tightened. 3 to 4 rounds of this over the next 12 to 18 months is what I'm hearing from experts I trust.
I donít see any chance of a V shape. Businesses are being destroyed by the hour and arenít coming back. This is a collapse with greater ferocity than the Great Depression, it took 20 years and a World War which destroyed most of the worldís production capabilities to get us out of it.

Many of us are going to live the remainder of our good years in a depression, the only unknown is the severity due to the length of these shutdowns.
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      04-02-2020, 09:08 AM   #3628
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Quote:
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I am just blown away that no one thinks the market was overpriced before this happened...
The S&P500 (much better index of the actual US stock market vs DJIA) was trading at about 20x earnings in mid-February. That's into "overpriced" territory, but not into wild uncharted territory like we saw in the late 90's. Earnings and stock buybacks had really kept that valuation modest until the peak.
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      04-02-2020, 09:09 AM   #3629
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ASAP View Post
I am just blown away that no one thinks the market was overpriced before this happened...
Hah I thought it should have been around 6k FYI.
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      04-02-2020, 09:09 AM   #3630
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ASAP View Post
I am just blown away that no one thinks the market was overpriced before this happened...
I didnít say that. I said the economy was strong. Not the same thing, at all.
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