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      12-25-2019, 08:35 PM   #2663
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Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post
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Originally Posted by Efthreeoh View Post
I don't think the electric future is as close as everyone thinks.
We're in the eye of the storm: the first disruptive wave has passed through, but now things are in a weird pause:

(1.) Big-scale auto manufacturers can't make a decent electric product because they don't want to disrupt their existing business and profits ... and ...

(2.) Companies with a decent electric product, can't produce it at scale because they're new and lack infrastructure

Said differently, what would Tesla's all-engine market share look like if they could produce as many cars/trucks as customers want? More importantly, how fast would that all-vehicle market share be growing?

I'd say we're about 4 years away from that EV singularity. And that's when the 2nd wave of the storm hits.

One we hit that, the majority of the people on this board will either have an EV or be considering one, and ICE vehicles will lose every power contest.
Some of us may consider an EV in addition to, but not as a 1-for-1 replacement, and an EV would be my commuter special rather than my "fun" car. I'll always have a MT ICE.
Agree. Lack of options with regards to residential charging is going to hold back adoption.
Middle America won't be confirming either.
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      12-26-2019, 06:17 AM   #2664
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Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post
We're in the eye of the storm: the first disruptive wave has passed through, but now things are in a weird pause:

(1.) Big-scale auto manufacturers can't make a decent electric product because they don't want to disrupt their existing business and profits ... and ...

(2.) Companies with a decent electric product, can't produce it at scale because they're new and lack infrastructure

Said differently, what would Tesla's all-engine market share look like if they could produce as many cars/trucks as customers want? More importantly, how fast would that all-vehicle market share be growing?

I'd say we're about 4 years away from that EV singularity. And that's when the 2nd wave of the storm hits.

One we hit that, the majority of the people on this board will either have an EV or be considering one, and ICE vehicles will lose every power contest.
Four (4) years where the mainstream auto manufacturers only produce EV? I'm not seeing it. Not one manufacturer has yet made a profitable EV (i.e. without accounting tricks, the car sells at a profit).

Range anxiety and recharge time are factors that are going to keep EV secondary to ICE far longer than four years.
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      12-26-2019, 06:49 AM   #2665
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Originally Posted by Efthreeoh View Post
Four (4) years where the mainstream auto manufacturers only produce EV? I'm not seeing it. Not one manufacturer has yet made a profitable EV (i.e. without accounting tricks, the car sells at a profit).

Range anxiety and recharge time are factors that are going to keep EV secondary to ICE far longer than four years.
EV's have about 3% of the market now in Canada and I suspect that's the same in the USA. I don't see market saturation coming anytime soon for a number of reasons. Most folks hold onto their cars for at least 3 years, some much longer so that alone will limit the change over. The charging infrastructure to support a large market shift isn't in place and there doesn't seem to be any real push to put that in place right now, that on it's own would take a decade to accomplish and maybe more. So what's the order of magnitude? The range anxiety issue will remain until fast reliable and available charging is available, and nobody will really start building that until sales improve to justify it.

Just my two cents.
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      12-26-2019, 07:16 AM   #2666
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Originally Posted by Efthreeoh View Post
Four (4) years where the mainstream auto manufacturers only produce EV? I'm not seeing it. Not one manufacturer has yet made a profitable EV (i.e. without accounting tricks, the car sells at a profit).

Range anxiety and recharge time are factors that are going to keep EV secondary to ICE far longer than four years.
EV's have about 3% of the market now in Canada and I suspect that's the same in the USA. I don't see market saturation coming anytime soon for a number of reasons. Most folks hold onto their cars for at least 3 years, some much longer so that alone will limit the change over. The charging infrastructure to support a large market shift isn't in place and there doesn't seem to be any real push to put that in place right now, that on it's own would take a decade to accomplish and maybe more. So what's the order of magnitude? The range anxiety issue will remain until fast reliable and available charging is available, and nobody will really start building that until sales improve to justify it.

Just my two cents.
I've been saying the same thing for years. EV lovers tend to disregard such truths.
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      12-26-2019, 07:19 AM   #2667
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People from California think that EVs are taking over the world until they leave/travel. It's not happening anytime soon.
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      12-26-2019, 07:51 AM   #2668
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People from California think that EVs are taking over the world until they leave/travel. It's not happening anytime soon.
Agreed! These damn Californians. Lol!
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      12-26-2019, 08:08 AM   #2669
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Michael Shellenberger on EV's to ICE

This comment from an article in the National Post

As for the oil and gas industry, Shellenberger said, it will take many decades to move from gasoline for cars to either hydrogen-powered fuel cells or electric vehicles. “The carbon density of gasoline … is such an amazing advantage, how much energy and power and endless range you can get in an internal combustion engine. So that’s not going to go away very soon.”

https://nationalpost.com/business/lo..._autoplay=true
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      12-26-2019, 08:15 AM   #2670
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Originally Posted by ///M4ster Yoda View Post
People from California think that EVs are taking over the world until they leave/travel. It's not happening anytime soon.
Fron Forbes:

Had California and Germany invested $680 billion into new nuclear power plants instead of renewables like solar and wind farms, the two would already be generating 100% or more of their electricity from clean (low-emissions) energy sources, according to a new analysis by Environmental Progress.

Electricity consumed by electric cars will grow 300-fold between 2016 and 2040, analysts predict. That electricity must come from clean energy sources, not fossil fuels, for the transition to electric cars to mitigate climate change.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michael.../#7e6d5f33e0d4
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      12-26-2019, 11:04 AM   #2671
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Originally Posted by Salty Dog View Post
Fron Forbes:

Had California and Germany invested $680 billion into new nuclear power plants instead of renewables like solar and wind farms, the two would already be generating 100% or more of their electricity from clean (low-emissions) energy sources, according to a new analysis by Environmental Progress.

Electricity consumed by electric cars will grow 300-fold between 2016 and 2040, analysts predict. That electricity must come from clean energy sources, not fossil fuels, for the transition to electric cars to mitigate climate change.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michael.../#7e6d5f33e0d4
Nuclear makes sense for several reasons. Unfortunately, the virtue signal factor is much higher for renewables, so that's where the focus has been. Nuclear isn't sexy anymore.
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      12-26-2019, 11:08 AM   #2672
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Originally Posted by ///M4ster Yoda View Post
People from California think that EVs are taking over the world until they leave/travel. It's not happening anytime soon.
You seem to be implying that Californians (well, some of them) think that California is the center of the universe. This is not news to anyone who's lived or done business there.
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      12-26-2019, 11:15 AM   #2673
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Originally Posted by pennsiveguy View Post
You seem to be implying that Californians (well, some of them) think that California is the center of the universe. This is not news to anyone who's lived or done business there.
For the love of all things holy, don't tell the folks that live in Toronto because they clearly think the earth revolves around them.
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      12-26-2019, 11:28 AM   #2674
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Originally Posted by Salty Dog View Post
For the love of all things holy, don't tell the folks that live in Toronto because they clearly think the earth revolves around them.
I say we foment unrest and hope for a war between the two. I would take perverse pleasure in watching a bunch of virtue-signalling sanctimonious progressive whistle-dicks trying to kill each other.
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      12-26-2019, 11:43 AM   #2675
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I say we foment unrest and hope for a war between the two. I would take perverse pleasure in watching a bunch of virtue-signalling sanctimonious progressive whistle-dicks trying to kill each other.
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      12-26-2019, 02:34 PM   #2676
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Originally Posted by Efthreeoh View Post
Four (4) years where the mainstream auto manufacturers only produce EV? I'm not seeing it.
No - 4 years until auto manufacturers with good EV products can make them at scale to meet demand. The problem with EV sales globally isn't demand, it's supply: either niche product for few customers (Nissan Leaf), or mainstream product but small supply (Teslas, Rivian).

Once auto manufacturers with good EV products DO make them at scale, costs will come down and market share will sky rocket just like for any other product (smart phones, flat screen TVs, fitness watches, houses, etc)

As for middle America, how many people predicted Tesla in coastal America 9 years ago? Zero. Well, EV trucks will destroy ICE trucks in every way and in 10 years new trucks will be majority EV:



There's no way Joe Rogan isn't buying a Rivian, and BOOM!, middle America is electric.

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Originally Posted by ///M4ster Yoda View Post
People from California think that EVs are taking over the world until they leave/travel. It's not happening anytime soon.
No, auto executives think EVs are taking over the World:
Volkswagen AG will ramp up spending on electric vehicles, automated driving and other new technology by 36% as the world’s largest automaker challenges rivals to keep pace with an aggressive shift into the post-combustion era.“We will step up the pace again in the coming years with our investments,” said Diess. “Hybridization, electrification and digitalization of our fleet are becoming an increasingly important area of focus.”

Investment surges 36% to 12 billion euros a year in new plan
  • Total expenditures over next five years total roughly 145 billion euros
  • Share of spending on next-generation technology climbs to 40% from 30%
  • 20 million electrics to be based on mass-market MEB platform, with 6 million on technology developed by Porsche and Audi
  • Electrics to be made at plants in Mlada Boleslav, Czech Republic; Chattanooga, Tennessee; and Foshan, China
  • ID.Next electric SUV to start production in 2022 at factory in Emden, Germany
  • Decision on a Turkey plant to be made by the end of the year
Californians just read facts because they think other people already know all this stuff until they leave/travel.
Electric vehicle startup Rivian said on Monday it closed a $1.3 billion investment round led by fund manager T. Rowe Price, but also including existing investors online retailer Amazon and No. 2 U.S. automaker Ford.

The investment round, which also included BlackRock, is the fourth this year for Rivian and positions the Plymouth, Michigan-based company...Prior to Monday’s announcement, Rivian had raised $2.2 billion from investors, according to investor website PitchBook, and was valued at an estimated $5 billion to $7 billion.
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I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.

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      12-26-2019, 03:00 PM   #2677
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Efthreeoh View Post
Four (4) years where the mainstream auto manufacturers only produce EV? I'm not seeing it.
No - 4 years until auto manufacturers with good EV products can make them at scale to meet demand. The problem with EV sales globally isn't demand, it's supply: either niche product for few customers, or mainstream product but small supply.

Once auto manufacturers with good EV products DO make them at scale, costs will come down and market share will sky rocket just like for any other product (smart phones, flat screen TVs, fitness watches, houses, etc)

As for middle America, how many people predicted Tesla in coastal America 9 years ago? Zero. Well, EV trucks will destroy ICE trucks in every way and in 10 years new trucks will be majority EV:



There's no way Joe Rogan isn't buying a Rivian, and BOOM!, middle America is electric.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ///M4ster Yoda View Post
People from California think that EVs are taking over the world until they leave/travel. It's not happening anytime soon.
No, [COLOR="Blue"]auto executives think EVs are taking over the World[/COLOR]:
Volkswagen AG will ramp up spending on electric vehicles, automated driving and other new technology by 36% as the world's largest automaker challenges rivals to keep pace with an aggressive shift into the post-combustion era."We will step up the pace again in the coming years with our investments," said Diess. "Hybridization, electrification and digitalization of our fleet are becoming an increasingly important area of focus."
  • Total expenditures over next five years total roughly 145 billion euros
  • Share of spending on next-generation technology climbs to 40% from 30%
  • 20 million electrics to be based on mass-market MEB platform, with 6 million on technology developed by Porsche and Audi
  • Electrics to be made at plants in Mlada Boleslav, Czech Republic; Chattanooga, Tennessee; and Foshan, China
  • ID.Next electric SUV to start production in 2022 at factory in Emden, Germany
  • Decision on a Turkey plant to be made by the end of the year
Californians just read facts because they think other people already all this stuff until they leave/travel.
We will agree to disagree. I live in a densely populated part of NY.

I saw 2 Tesla's on the road today among the thousands upon thousands of other vehicles.

The Germans are taking a big gamble
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      12-26-2019, 03:23 PM   #2678
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      12-26-2019, 03:31 PM   #2679
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Originally Posted by ///M4ster Yoda View Post
We will agree to disagree.

The Germans are taking a big gamble
And the Americans:

GM CEO and Chairman Mary Barra and LG Chem Vice Chairman and CEO Hak-Cheol Shin at the automaker’s battery lab in Warren, Mich., where the companies announced a new $2.6-billion joint venture on Dec. 5, 2019.The capital being spent on electric vehicles alone is roughly equal to the massive amount that all automakers globally combined spend on capital expenditures and research and development in a year
You may have heard of Japanese cars ... which, in the 70s/80s, there was NO WAY anyone would buy, until a few oil crises and recessions came along and now they're common place. You might've owned one!



Ironically, the Fremont, CA auto plant that's Tesla's HQ used to be a GM plant through the 70s ... then it closed for a few years until GM and Toyota did a joint venture and now it's Tesla.

It's not about opinions, it's already happening, the checks are written.

Invest in lithium.
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Originally Posted by mkoesel View Post
I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.

Last edited by GrussGott; 12-26-2019 at 07:17 PM..
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      12-26-2019, 08:02 PM   #2680
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by ///M4ster Yoda View Post
We will agree to disagree.

The Germans are taking a big gamble
[COLOR="Blue"]And the Americans:[/COLOR]

GM CEO and Chairman Mary Barra and LG Chem Vice Chairman and CEO Hak-Cheol Shin at the automaker’s battery lab in Warren, Mich., where the companies announced a new $2.6-billion joint venture on Dec. 5, 2019.The capital being spent on electric vehicles alone is roughly equal to the massive amount that all automakers globally combined spend on capital expenditures and research and development in a year
You may have heard of Japanese cars ... which, in the 70s/80s, there was NO WAY anyone would buy, until a few oil crises and recessions came along and now they're common place. You might've owned one!



Ironically, the Fremont, CA auto plant that's Tesla's HQ used to be a GM plant through the 70s ... then it closed for a few years until GM and Toyota did a joint venture and now it's Tesla.

It's not about opinions, it's already happening, the checks are written.

Invest in lithium.
I'm not questioning the big "push" for electric vehicles by the major auto manufacturers. They are after all being squeezed by government regulations etc etc etc....What I'm questioning is the public's desire (American public) for these "vehicles". It's one thing to have every wanna be tree hugger in Cali with their Soy Lattes rocking a Tesla. It's a WHOLE different ball game to get the rest of the public to jump on that bandwagon. Like I said earlier I live in a very populated part of the US and I just don't see it. Sure I see a Tesla here and there but that's about it. Electric vehicles have a long way to go before every Tom Dick and Harry are gonna go for it.
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      12-26-2019, 10:31 PM   #2681
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Originally Posted by ///M4ster Yoda View Post
It's one thing to have every wanna be tree hugger in Cali with their Soy Lattes rocking a Tesla... I just don't see it.
Here's why you don't see it: You're confusing waging anti-American culture war with business.

Take another example: global warming - We all know the arguments for/against, pussies vs the tough guys, blah blah blah. What's the right answer?

For those who knew where to look, they saw the answer back in the 90s by the one authority you can trust on this topic: reinsurers. See, they don't give a shit about name-calling or culture wars or hating other Americans; as a business, they just care about making money. So back in the 90s reinsurers started pricing in global warming to their premiums - because that's business. and they weren't wrong cause they just look at the claims math, and they're doing pretty great. (see below)

In your "very populated area" do you see USB-C? Do see iPhones? Do you see Netflix, Hulu, Facebook, Instagram, or Gmail? Why no culture wars there? Anyone bitching about soy-drinking Californians making iPhones?

Do you see Amazon? Do you think any Amazon customers are aware of Amazon's soy-drinking politics?
"Human-induced climate change is real, serious, and action is needed".
It one click away on their homepage!

It's all just business: Exponential growth of technology adoption.

Humans cannot intuitively understand exponential growth; so the smart business dude looks to the inputs that would trigger exponential growth ... like $146B in EV auto investments by every major manufacturer.


BTW, reinsurers are doing great, and they don't even like soy lattes!
Outlook for 2019
The industry is expected to benefit from [blah blah blah] Additionally, climate change issues present an opportunity for the reinsurance industry as the frequency of weather-related catastrophes increases and presents more opportunities to tap into demand growth from traditional insurers related to risk adaptation strategies associated with climate change. Since ceding insurers typically obtain reinsurance for high-risk policies, reinsurance operators generally underwrite high-risk classes of insurance.


I'm telling you, invest in lithium. Electric is done deal and that's not an opinion, just like reinsurers know "climate change" isn't an opinion.
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Originally Posted by mkoesel View Post
I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.

Last edited by GrussGott; 12-26-2019 at 10:41 PM..
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      12-27-2019, 12:20 AM   #2682
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ///M4ster Yoda View Post
I'm not questioning the big "push" for electric vehicles by the major auto manufacturers. They are after all being squeezed by government regulations etc etc etc....What I'm questioning is the public's desire (American public) for these "vehicles". It's one thing to have every wanna be tree hugger in Cali with their Soy Lattes rocking a Tesla. It's a WHOLE different ball game to get the rest of the public to jump on that bandwagon. Like I said earlier I live in a very populated part of the US and I just don't see it. Sure I see a Tesla here and there but that's about it. Electric vehicles have a long way to go before every Tom Dick and Harry are gonna go for it.
It is a whole different ball game to get the majority of the public to jump on the EV bandwagon. BUT...EV buyers are no longer just tree huggers from Cali with their Soy lattes. Tesla with the model 3 has broken that barrier and has started to change the demographic. Take a glance at the tesla forums on what previous cars people had....and you’ll find quite a bit of gear heads and manual fanatics. Or look at the local auto-x events. When have you ever really seen an EV at the events? I’m hoping to dust off my helmet and make some of the Nassau coliseum events next season lol. Not only are you seeing more EV’s at the events....they’re even pretty competitive. This years scca solo nationals winner for b street was a model 3 performance. If the Porsche Taycan and Mach-E gt do well in their respective classes....it will help push the ev adoption to the next step. Still have quite a ways to go....but the change is happening.

Last edited by turboawdfanatic; 12-27-2019 at 12:25 AM..
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      12-27-2019, 12:25 AM   #2683
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pennsiveguy View Post
Nuclear makes sense for several reasons. Unfortunately, the virtue signal factor is much higher for renewables, so that's where the focus has been. Nuclear isn't sexy anymore.


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      12-27-2019, 04:19 AM   #2684
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Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post
And the Americans:

GM CEO and Chairman Mary Barra and LG Chem Vice Chairman and CEO Hak-Cheol Shin at the automaker’s battery lab in Warren, Mich., where the companies announced a new $2.6-billion joint venture on Dec. 5, 2019.The capital being spent on electric vehicles alone is roughly equal to the massive amount that all automakers globally combined spend on capital expenditures and research and development in a year
You may have heard of Japanese cars ... which, in the 70s/80s, there was NO WAY anyone would buy, until a few oil crises and recessions came along and now they're common place. You might've owned one!



Ironically, the Fremont, CA auto plant that's Tesla's HQ used to be a GM plant through the 70s ... then it closed for a few years until GM and Toyota did a joint venture and now it's Tesla.

It's not about opinions, it's already happening, the checks are written.

Invest in lithium.
An oil crisis created by bad US energy policy and Saudi Arabia embargo that instantly increased gas prices by nearly 100%. The US consumer bought small, cheaply manufactured, lower fuel consuming automobiles that were instantly available for purchase as a reaction. Japanese cars became popular because of politically driven market changes, which is no different than today with EV.

There are not more catastrophic weather events, there are more people and infrastructure in places where weather events occur. The planet is not going to be "saved" by the Elon Musk EV revolution.
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