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      01-09-2021, 11:59 PM   #221
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New hires at Tesla's German factory reveal what it's like to interview with Elon Musk's company — and why they're leaving competitors for less pay
Schnittmann has had a good stint at Daimler. He worked his way up to a well-paid position at the automaker with a gross annual income of around €100,000 ($122,540)— and that doesn't include the many extra perks Daimler offers its employees.

But it's over now. Schnittmann has accepted the "golden handshake" from Daimler CEO Ola Källenius.

The "golden handshake" is part of a major severance program at Daimler — the group wants to reduce "the surplus of engineers" that are becoming more and more dispensable.

At just over 40, he'll be receiving a severance package of somewhere in the region of $307,000 (€250,000).

Schnittmann said applied to Tesla in the summer and was successful. In fact, a number of his former colleagues had done the same.

"Daimler's severance program is a blessing for Tesla," the ex-Daimler employee said. "The Americans need good, experienced engineers — Daimler is essentially handing over its top-trained staff to its competitor. What they were thinking at HQ is a mystery to me."

At Tesla, he's now working in the same role for around a quarter less of his previous annual salary. He gets neither Christmas nor vacation bonuses nor any other income supplements from Tesla.

But Tesla still has a tempting offer to lure in new staff members: Schnittmann said the company offers staff a shares package they can freely dispose of after four years with the company
When is the last time we had a major brain drain from legacy businesses to tech? Google, FB, Amazon, Apple, ...
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      01-10-2021, 12:33 AM   #222
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A “well paid” position of $122K comes with a severance of $307K?
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      01-10-2021, 02:55 AM   #223
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A “well paid” position of $122K comes with a severance of $307K?
Likely a German corporate pension thing - I used to work with a lot of euro corp people and the various countries had healthy benefits corps have to maintain like the French corps have a thing called cadre which is kind of like tenure as a professor (in exchange for exemption from other workplace laws) and I know germany has a reister pension thing ... i'm just spitballin from memory.
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      01-15-2021, 10:03 AM   #224
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https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/15/tesl...gist-says.html

Tesla losing ground in Europe should trouble investors, strategist says

Saxo Bank Head of Equity Strategy Peter Garnry said Tesla’s outpacing by Renault, Volkswagen and Hyundai in Europe in recent months should have shareholders “alarmed.”

November’s European vehicle registration figures showed that plug-ins, a combination of pure electric and hybrid vehicles, rose by 198% year-on-year, while total car registrations across the continent were down 14%.

In the latest European EV rankings, Renault Zoe held onto the top spot, closely followed by the VW ID.3, according to sales figures from plug-in vehicle market database EV Volumes.

Tesla has been ceding ground in Europe, with its Model 3 now only the fourth-best selling pure electric vehicle (EV) on the continent, according to recent statistics.

The European EV market is now the biggest in the world in terms of sales following a surge in 2020 accompanying a slump in China. The portion of new car registrations that are electric is twice that of China and five times that of the U.S.

“Tesla will be successful and become one of the biggest carmakers in the future, but the competition is heating up and that puts the $805 billion market value into question,” Garnry said.
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      01-16-2021, 07:56 PM   #225
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Anyone who thinks Tesla has some kind of “lock” on the EV market and other car manufacturers will just die are delusional.

If nothing else, not everyone will want a Tesla. They are ugly and can’t possibly satisfy global car demand in the long run.

Porsche made a better Model S on its first try.

The freaking Ford Mach E is already better in many ways to the model Y.

Competition catches up FAST. Software will be almost instantly copied. Tesla isn’t even on the same level at manufacturing tech as a company like BMW or Toyota. They just aren’t interested in EV cars...yet.
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      01-16-2021, 09:39 PM   #226
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BayMoWe335 View Post
Anyone who thinks Tesla has some kind of “lock” on the EV market and other car manufacturers will just die are delusional.

If nothing else, not everyone will want a Tesla. They are ugly and can’t possibly satisfy global car demand in the long run.

Porsche made a better Model S on its first try.

The freaking Ford Mach E is already better in many ways to the model Y.

Competition catches up FAST. Software will be almost instantly copied. Tesla isn’t even on the same level at manufacturing tech as a company like BMW or Toyota. They just aren’t interested in EV cars...yet.
Tesla has been defying critics since the beginning. Nobody predicted their level of success in number of models and units sold. For them to do this with a propulsion system that was not at all popular is pretty amazing to me. I know from experience that changing consumer behavior is a time-consuming and really expensive proposition. Tesla almost single-handedly changed the behavior of many car buyers who just a few short years ago would never have though of buying an all-electric vehicle. Tesla's accomplishment is staggering in that regard. Tesla has absolutely disrupted the auto industry. Their success has accelerated the plans for established car companies electric product offerings by years.

You mention Porsche as being a company that has beat Tesla out of the gate. I've not driven the Porsche electric product, but it doesn't matter. Most cars are not as good a Porsche. The auto market is huge. Tesla can be wildly successful without being better than Porsche, arguably the best car company in the world in price/performance.

My son has a Tesla 3 dual motor. It is a remarkable car with some obvious weaknesses. Overall, I'm personally impressed by just how good it is.


Tesla is not sitting still. Their continued level of innovation will compete heads up or outrun established car companies going forward. They will never own the market. But, no car company in the history of cars has owned the market. I think they will have a key place in the market and and continue to disrupt the industry.
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      01-16-2021, 10:17 PM   #227
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sygazelle View Post
Tesla has been defying critics since the beginning. Nobody predicted their level of success in number of models and units sold. For them to do this with a propulsion system that was not at all popular is pretty amazing to me. I know from experience that changing consumer behavior is a time-consuming and really expensive proposition. Tesla almost single-handedly changed the behavior of many car buyers who just a few short years ago would never have though of buying an all-electric vehicle. Tesla's accomplishment is staggering in that regard. Tesla has absolutely disrupted the auto industry. Their success has accelerated the plans for established car companies electric product offerings by years.

You mention Porsche as being a company that has beat Tesla out of the gate. I've not driven the Porsche electric product, but it doesn't matter. Most cars are not as good a Porsche. The auto market is huge. Tesla can be wildly successful without being better than Porsche, arguably the best car company in the world in price/performance.

My son has a Tesla 3 dual motor. It is a remarkable car with some obvious weaknesses. Overall, I'm personally impressed by just how good it is.


Tesla is not sitting still. Their continued level of innovation will compete heads up or outrun established car companies going forward. They will never own the market. But, no car company in the history of cars has owned the market. I think they will have a key place in the market and and continue to disrupt the industry.
I would never bet against Elon, but you can talk in generalities and miss the facts. Tesla has made $600M profit in the last 12 months and has an $800B valuation. That is Walmart and Johnson and Johnson combined. It’s Disney, Netflix, and every other car manufacturer...combined. All the companies I mentioned are insanely profitable too.

Walmart made $20B in profit the last 12 months, pays a dividend, and has a global presence.

Tesla has gone fully speculative and even Elon didn’t believe it was worth this much...or he wouldn’t have had “funding secured” at $420/share, or a $75B valuation. Look at the Tesla chart. Has the story changed appreciably from a $100B valuation? They had the model 3 then...the car is fine, but it’s ugly, lacks features, overheats when driven hard, still requires a long time to charge, and has build quality issues.

They will have to be more profitable some day and that day is coming sooner than later.

Elon Musk is a genius, but he’s also a master salesman. He’s not making time machines...he’s making electric cars. It’s impressive, but the technology isn’t foreign or impossible to learn, steal, and improve. Again, Tesla will be just one of many car manufacturers competing for low margins in a tough manufacturing business...just like now.

For Tesla to trade at the current valuation is completely insane and speculative. It absolutely is trading as if it will be the only car people want because it’s worth triple ALL the other manufacturers that make better cars, frankly.

Last edited by BayMoWe335; 01-16-2021 at 10:23 PM..
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      01-16-2021, 11:33 PM   #228
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Tesla is an amazing car but... it can see ghosts

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      01-17-2021, 02:34 AM   #229
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BayMoWe335 View Post
Anyone who thinks Tesla has some kind of “lock” on the EV market and other car manufacturers will just die are delusional.

If nothing else, not everyone will want a Tesla. They are ugly and can’t possibly satisfy global car demand in the long run.

Porsche made a better Model S on its first try.

The freaking Ford Mach E is already better in many ways to the model Y.

Competition catches up FAST. Software will be almost instantly copied. Tesla isn’t even on the same level at manufacturing tech as a company like BMW or Toyota. They just aren’t interested in EV cars...yet.
That's never been true in any industry since the at least 70s, and likely before. To wit:

* Blockbuster never caught up with Netflix, never copied their software, went bankrupt. Hulu, Disney, HBOMax, et al are trying to catch up, and may, but who knows ... and online content is the industry with the least susceptibility to software-based disruption (viewers are simple) - yet here we are 25 years later and Netflix competitors are far from beating it.

* Walmart & Target have never caught up with Amazon, never copied their software, are still trying to catch up (but never will).

* Nokia, Ericksson, Blackberry have never caught up with Apple, never copied their software, and never will catch up.


In short, no: legacy competition won't catch up unless consumer autos defies business physics ... and it won't and here's why:

(1.) TSLA is the top brand in BEVs, and has be for 10 YEARS, not only has no competitor caught up, no competitor has come close.

(2.) The CEO of VW-Audi Group, (i.e., Porsche) said in blogpost, VAG is 4 years behind Tesla's Technology. Further VW management is a fractured mess, Diess is at war with the board, and they're completely unorganized.

(3.) The boards of VAG, Benz, and BMW met in Q1 2020 to discuss a BEV software JV to take on Tesla; i.e., the German automakers - at the very highest levels - believe Tesla has a BEV technology lead.

(4.) TSLA is profitably making and selling BEVs - who else is?

(5.) TSLA vehicles and technology aren't and won't be frozen in time; they'll continue releasing better technology, more vehicles, new design, and more features at an accelerating pace ... how do we know? Because this is has been happening for a decade.


Further, TSLA's corporate structure is 100% built to innovate and profitably build BEVs - no competitor comes close to that and TSLA's patented manufacturing technology is just coming online. This is why tech brand leaders always win no matter how big the competition is: they have legacy costs and their corporate structures are built around legacy product, not new products. For example:

• Tesla has no union costs or legacy union costs like pensions to fund
• Tesla has no marketing costs; VW spent $400M on BEV marketing in Q4 alone
• Tesla has no dealership margins to pay; VW can't make this work as it is (inside scoop is ~ICE margin is 16% but BEV margin is 0% with VW promising to make it up)

As it stands, TSLA has all ICE manufacturers beat cold on costs and this will only get better for Tesla.

Yes, as competitors put out debut models it'll definitely impact Tesla sales, and maybe a competitor will have a hit, but as I said, Tesla isn't standing still with either models, features, manufacturing tech, factory capacity, or battery tech.


With that, there are players who are a large threat to Tesla:

Apple may beat TSLA with a stronger brand and outsourced manufacturing

• TSLA may get overwhelmed by by generic platforms running Big Tech software

• Tesla has big trouble in little China

• Tesla will face other tech competitors: the SPACs, upstarts, JVs, and others ...


But no, the odds of legacy auto manufacturers beating TSLA, given current trends, isn't supported by available data.
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      01-17-2021, 02:38 AM   #230
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Originally Posted by BayMoWe335 View Post
It absolutely is trading as if it will be the only car people want
Nope, Tesla is trading as if Tesla is an ENERGY MANAGEMENT TECHNOLOGY company that happens to be funding its energy tech build with auto sales ...

... just like Amazon is a logistics management software company that funded its tech build with book & CD sales.

It should be mentioned that Elon Musk has a few other ideas than just auto sales
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      01-17-2021, 03:11 AM   #231
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..... but you can talk in generalities and miss the facts.
My response to your comments had nothing to do with generalities. I was specifically responding to your comments which made no mention at all about Tesla's valuation.


I do agree totally that Tesla is way overvalued relative to its P/E ratio or its earnings outlook.

Possibly Tesla's patents or its battery business are driving its ludicrous stock price.
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      01-17-2021, 04:32 AM   #232
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Originally Posted by sygazelle View Post
Possibly Tesla's patents or its battery business are driving its ludicrous stock price.
Two things are driving it:

(1.) This, and

(2.) New retail investors piling into what they perceive as a no-lose/FOMO trade

Either way, TSLA's value isn't ludicrous if you're a speculator or trader - in fact, it's made a lot of millionaires.

If you're an investor, TSLA is a out of bounds (at its current price) as is most of the market. This is clearly one of those "when the tide goes out we'll see who's swimming without pants" times.
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      01-17-2021, 08:50 AM   #233
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Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post
Two things are driving it:

(1.) This, and

(2.) New retail investors piling into what they perceive as a no-lose/FOMO trade

Either way, TSLA's value isn't ludicrous if you're a speculator or trader - in fact, it's made a lot of millionaires.

If you're an investor, TSLA is a out of bounds (at its current price) as is most of the market. This is clearly one of those "when the tide goes out we'll see who's swimming without pants" times.
Well said. My ludicrous adjective was a play on words to feed my off beat sense of humor. However, I'm not buying at this price, nor am I selling. It's going to be a crazy next couple of years.
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      01-17-2021, 12:23 PM   #234
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post
Two things are driving it:

(1.) This, and

(2.) New retail investors piling into what they perceive as a no-lose/FOMO trade

Either way, TSLA's value isn't ludicrous if you're a speculator or trader - in fact, it's made a lot of millionaires.

If you're an investor, TSLA is a out of bounds (at its current price) as is most of the market. This is clearly one of those "when the tide goes out we'll see who's swimming without pants" times.
Tesla is trading on its own island relative to the market. People that say Tesla is “overvalued” like everything else don’t know what they’re talking about. Tesla can’t be compared to any company in terms of how overvalued it is relative to fundamentals. Again, Elon isn’t making magic beans...he’s making cars.

Again, I see the value...it’s just not really worth what it’s currently trading. You can point to semi trucks, electric networks, and space all you want...those things have to produce earnings at some point. Even Amazon started delivering the profit and Tesla will too. I hope they can.

No one said the speculation hasn’t created real millionaires. It has. The value is real money and if you can get out at the right time, you win. I’m speaking from a long term business perspective and my guess is we’ll look back on this as a bubble. Bubbles do make millionaires and billionaires. It’s the bursting that’s the problem.
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      01-17-2021, 01:53 PM   #235
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loads of people are tied up into teslas fortunes.Tesla is valuation by twitter and social media nil else evidence all speculation.
Who will gain money and lose money when the balloon bursts who knows. Certainly I Don't as I'm neither a financial or tech ir EV expert
I guess if you bought at $400 and after the crash price dropped to $450 still good right?
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      01-17-2021, 07:56 PM   #236
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Again, I see the value...it’s just not really worth what it’s currently trading. ... how overvalued it is relative to fundamentals
It may not be worth it to you, but it's obviously worth it or the price wouldn't be rising.

And, FYI, "fundamentals" isn't a justification for anything - it's just one theory of trading; another is "technicals"; another is "buy & hold growth"; and there are others ... none of which is "right", only right for you. Whenever you hear someone decrying "fundamentals" it usually means they've just been caught out being wrong. (or never been right)

In fact, "fundamentals" fails for most traders:
Warren Buffett famously bet any hedge fund $1M that, over 10 years, they couldn't beat the market. He won the bet. So much for fundamentals.

Show me a purely fundamentals trader and I'll show you someone with a worse investing record than an index fund.

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Originally Posted by KRS_SN View Post
Who will gain money and lose money when the balloon bursts who knows.
Quote:
Originally Posted by BayMoWe335 View Post
I’m speaking from a long term business perspective and my guess is we’ll look back on this as a bubble.
All bubbles aren't the same, or even bubbles...
Dutch Tulip Bulbs, for example, are an expiring commodity vs TSLA which creates wealth & value:
Patented technology, an ever increasing set of products in an ever increasing number of markets AND industries; they're building new factories that'll produce patented products at higher volumes than anyone on the planet ...

Here's a historical, i.e, "long term business" example of a not-a-bubble stock:
We take air travel for granted, but in the 30 YEARS between 1920 and 1950 it was far from certain air travel would even involve airplanes.

During that time, there was a platform war between airships, i.e., dirigibles (you might've noticed those large hangers over at NASA Ames Research / Moffett) and airplanes. In those 30 years (and that's a long-ass time - the majority of our lives) airships were thought to be best for ocean aviation / long distance, and airplanes for mail delivery or short hops.

In 1928 only 2 aviation companies had publicly listed stock:
Curtiss & Wright; but between 1928 and 1930 an additional 28 companies went public, a BOOM ... kinda sounds like BEV companies right now ... speculators/traders who bet right, won big.

One of them was Frederick Rentschler - a founder of Pratt & Whitney and a partner of William Boeing - He famously invested $253 in a company that would become United Airlines & United Technologies, which by 1934 grew to $30,000,000 (Rentschler stated this figure to a Senate subcommittee in 1934). Was he just lucky? Or maybe, being an industry veteran, he knew what he was investing in and why United would grow so fast and so much - i.e., maybe his analysis about a growth stock was right even if the "fundamentals" weren't!

Given United is still around today (as of 2020 as Raytheon Technologies & United Airlines) and that stake would be worth much, much more, we can't call 1934 United a bubble, right?


My point is, parabolic price does not a bubble make:
Growing companies in growing markets in growing industries create wealth and potentially do this at an increasing velocity - forever.

Is TSLA such a company? but so far they're the first successful company in an expanding industry (energy) profitably making an expanding line of products, in an expanding line of markets, and they can potentially do that forever. How confident are you TSLA isn't a United Technologies / United Airlines? Or more?

In short, one can make a very reasonable "long term business" data-driven argument that TSLA's current price is actually a bargain!

That is, when you analyze your guess with historical data (i.e, "long term business" data), it can look like a bad guess.
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Last edited by GrussGott; 01-17-2021 at 10:14 PM..
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      01-20-2021, 04:28 PM   #237
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Holy shit. It's on.
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      Yesterday, 10:19 PM   #238
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Elon continues confounding anti-BEVers
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