[jmg]

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

Recent record profits with record low inventory in the new and used car market seems to be a good example of what happens in the short term. Besides those selling, has anyone else benefited from this market imbalance?

^ this was caused by an inability to produce, not unwillingness. Same will happen in the power industry if we move too much load onto the system too quickly. Scaling such operations takes decades. Will stability ever return? some day. Until then? brownouts and "market adjustment" pricing.

The question is, is it worth it, and if so, does it (demand) have to change that quickly?

The inability to produce was the result of a sudden pandemic that chocked production and distribution. In this case, we have a 13 year warning.

Also, profit is high because of demand. Bet your bottom dollar car manufacturers still want volume. Once they get it, prices will stabilize as supply meets demand. Again, they want volume.

[GoneIn4Secs]

always some over the rainbow type of solution with this EV cult, never anything factual and concrete

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by jmg

The batteries will potentially allow for energy captured during the day to be used at night.

where will these batteries come from, and where will they go?

Originally Posted by jmg

The mandate puts a clock on the plan. That's the point.

and when they don't get it done in time ?

Originally Posted by jmg

The inability to produce was the result of a sudden pandemic that chocked production and distribution. In this case, we have a 13 year warning.

we've had more than 13 years already to see this was coming, and still aren't ready. Never mind the future, look to the past. I don't think that will be changed with a mandate, though it sure would be nice to think that such things work.

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by chris719

The solution to that is to buffer with batteries. Everyone with a solar installation does this and knows this. It will come to the grid.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/battery...id-11640082783

So are we mandating everyone that buys a car needs a solar system with battery backup too?

[Cos270]

I don't think many outside of the automotive manufacturing world fully grasp how much supply (on the vehicle side) is going to outstrip demand (be it because of consumer interest or lagging infrastructure) in the next 5-8 years. We are going to have a plethora of EV choices, but it won't mean anything if no one buys them. The agreement that has been made behind closed doors between OEMs and policy makers is "We'll create the demand, you just handle the supply". Which is an incredibly slippery slope when you're talking about technology that is still in a huge state of churn. Throw in the most tumultuous global energy crisis, spurred by Russia-Ukraine, since the 70's and we are really in uncharted territory here from a policy-making standpoint.

[chris719]

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

So are we mandating everyone that buys a car needs a solar system with battery backup too?

No, but everyone who has solar already understands that it doesn't work at night and you need batteries. Grid-level storage is undoubtedly going to happen. No one is saying it's going to happen tomorrow. Repeating that it's dark at night makes me question if you're an actual engineer or what.

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by chris719

No, but everyone who has solar already understands that it doesn't work at night and you need batteries. Grid-level storage is undoubtedly going to happen. No one is saying it's going to happen tomorrow. Repeating that it's dark at night makes me question if you're an actual engineer or what.

How many people don't have solar, and vote for these ideas or elect those that push them through?

The "somebody else" solution ?

I repeat it because people point out the growth in solar as the solution to where these watts will come from, but they never seem to mention how they plan to get those solar watts into their cars when it's dark. Like they see the solar part of the gird like a bucket of water, you can just tap it whenever you want to. that if I put $20 of green power into the grid in the day, I can remove that same $20 green energy at night. It's more like a faucet that only flows in daylight.

[chris719]

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

How many people don't have solar, and vote for these ideas or elect those that push them through?

The "somebody else" solution ?

I repeat it because people point out the growth in solar as the solution to where these watts will come from, but they never seem to mention how they plan to get those solar watts into their cars when it's dark. Like they see the solar part of the gird like a bucket of water, you can just tap it whenever you want to. that if I put $20 of green power into the grid in the day, I can remove that same $20 green energy at night. It's more like a faucet that only flows in daylight.

Grid. Storage.

Did you not read anything written?
Also:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/battery...id-11640082783

Companies are poised to install record amounts of batteries on America’s electric grid this year, as government mandates and a steep decline in costs fuel rapid growth in power storage.

The U.S., which had less than a gigawatt of large battery installations in 2020—roughly enough to power 350,000 homes for a handful of hours—is on pace to add six gigawatts this year and another nine gigawatts in 2022, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Demand for utility-scale storage is expected to keep rising world-wide for the next several years, driven by rapid growth in the U.S. and China, as new storage technologies and pressure to add renewable energy sources to stem carbon emissions reshape the electricity industry.

Giant batteries, often paired with solar farms, can charge when sunshine is plentiful, then send electricity to the grid later when the sun goes down or demand otherwise spikes and power is more valuable. The installations, most of which currently use lithium-ion batteries like the ones found in electric vehicles and laptops, resemble rows of boxy shipping containers, and usually provide up to four hours of backup power.

[jmg]

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

where will these batteries come from, and where will they go?

We will make them, and the technology to recycle more of them will progress.

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

and when they don't get it done in time ?

Demand won't be binary. It will grow over the next 13 years as car manufacturers will want to be well into the EV game by 2035 instead of debuting entire fleets in one year. As demand increases, supply will adapt to take advantage. Alternatives like home solar panels will become more widespread, so that will also help.

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

we've had more than 13 years already to see this was coming, and still aren't ready. Never mind the future, look to the past. I don't think that will be changed with a mandate, though it sure would be nice to think that such things work.

This kind of proves my point though, doesn't it? We've seen it coming, but we aren't close to ready. Vague ideas weren't enough, it's legislation like this that makes it tangible.

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by chris719

Grid. Storage.

Did you not read anything written?
Also:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/battery...id-11640082783

Batteries are the answer, but are already behind the curve, and the growth figures in that article represent national storage growth. California's added load alone will dwarf that national growth. Batteries have existed for centuries, but there is a reason it's still not in wide use on a national utility scale. Some day, sure.

There are also issues like this that put pressure on the system (from your own article):

California is racing to secure power to make up for the impending closure of several gas-fired power plants as well as a nuclear facility that provides nearly 10% of the electricity generated in the state.

They are manufacturing a crisis so they can manage-by-crisis. Cut the supply and mandate new load, make tax payers suffer and have them pay to fix the crisis. I'm glad I don't live there.

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by jmg

As demand increases, supply will adapt to take advantage.

If someone on the supply side said we weren't ready to do what the demand side wants, then what?

Originally Posted by jmg

This kind of proves my point though, doesn't it? We've seen it coming, but we aren't close to ready. Vague ideas weren't enough, it's legislation like this that makes it tangible.

It is the point, but have we ever seen good ideas that don't work when put to the test? Remember all the fuel mileage mandates that have been rolled back, numerous times over the last 3 decades? Good ideas, but not realistic/practical/executable.

E85 was supposed to be a good idea and really does reduce C02 emissions. It was put into the market decades ago, and I still can't buy it where I live.

I expect (hope) the same will happen here, the ideas/goals will got rolled back to align with reality.

[Torgus]

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

where will these batteries come from, and where will they go?

They mainly come from China currently. The stand alone batteries last about 20 years before the battery degradation is just too much. EV batteries are worse in that you can't really plot a true degradation curve you have so make a bajillion assumptions that you don't have to make with standalone storage.

and when they are done they kind of suck to recycle: https://blog.ucsusa.org/jessica-dunn...ed%20on%20size.

Source: I sell Solar and battery systems that connect to the grid at the Utility level.


Watching this discission is amusing because some people get it and others don't have a clue.

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by Torgus

They mainly come from China currently.

So I'll I'm assuming these aren't free, are they?

[Torgus]

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

So I'll I'm assuming these aren't free, are they?

Horrifically expensive imo. A 500kW 2 hour battery is Roughly 450k delivered to the states from China. Issue is 2 hour batteries meh. You really need at least 4 hours of battery to be useful. Otherwise all of your battery power is used up in 2 hours. A 4 hour battery is twice as large. The cells are what is expensive. The kicker is you don't want to leave a battery fully discharged, you want an ASC or Average State of Charge above 50% for degradation reasons. So you have to charge that battery back up from the grid because there is now no solar.

A 500kW 4 hour battery is SMALL in terms of really helping the grid. You need tons of them to even make a dent.

[SoCal_NSX]

Originally Posted by chris719

No, but everyone who has solar already understands that it doesn't work at night and you need batteries. Grid-level storage is undoubtedly going to happen. No one is saying it's going to happen tomorrow. Repeating that it's dark at night makes me question if you're an actual engineer or what.

that's not how solar works...

I have a 27 panel system that usual outproduces what I use and get a credit from SoCal Edison every month, but in the summer running AC all day and night, I will use more than it produces and have a bill...Charging an electric car in the day or night doesn't really matter with Solar ...I typically will have either a $50 credit or bill at the end of the year from Edison when all is said in done..The battery is typically only used for storing power and used during power outages.

I don't have an EV, but not gonna freak out if all new cars are EV by 2035 like most car companies have already said to be planning on doing or make a big deal about California or the other 17 states that have already said to be doing the same thing....It's not like all the ICE vehicles will be sent to the crusher at 11:59 on 12/31/34

It's not like it is tomorrow....they have 13 years to work on getting it figured out, if they don't it will most likely be pushed back.

[jmg]

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

The concept of converting Cali to private solar will require each home to have a battery bank larger than the battery in the car, since one has to factor in a full 60 to 80 kWh recharge plus overnight household consumption.

You are assuming that everyone drives 200-300 miles every single day and needs a full charge every single night, which is not the case.

Ideally, the system is calibrated so that the energy captured during the day and stored in your batter is used at night and augmented with grid sourced power, and then replenished the next dar. This will reduce grid load further at night.

For homes not equipped with batteries, excess solar power captured during the day is sent back to the grid, generating credits for the household, and reducing expenses and grid load at the time. However, it will not reduce load at night when there is no solar power to capture. Ideally, the additional load to the grid for those without batteries are offset, even if only partially, by those with batteries. The advantage of those with batteries would be cost.

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

And not every EV owner in Cali lives or will live in a single family home with a solar roof. But enact the Legislation any way, guys like you will figure it out.

In my opinion, solar panels are going to be increasingly cost effective and incentivised to allow for more widespread use in apartment buildings, parking lots, and parking garage roofs, further reducing grid dependence.

With faster and faster charging times and an increase in charging stations, even those who live in apartments with limited capabilities to charge overnight, will be able to visit a charging station and recharge in minutes. Enough for a few days commute.

Food for thought: 13 years ago the Tesla Roaster was unveiled. The EV landscape was sparse. There were no chargers anywhere, because there were no cars. An hour of charging added 56 miles of range with the available charging options at the time. With charging options available today, you can get 340 miles in thirty minutes.

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by jmg

You are assuming that everyone drives 200-300 miles every single day and needs a full charge every single night, which is not the case.

Whatever scenario you use, driving 30 miles a day or 300, the battery you charge from needs to be bigger than the battery you discharge to if you want to only use what you captured. And the solar system needs to be scaled to supply more than that much source charge.

You want to be able to put 300 miles into your EV? your power wall needs to have more than 300 mils of charge stored in it. Only need 30 miles of charge? get a small battery with 30+ miles storage and a smaller solar plant, and know you can never charge more than 30 miles a day from it. Want to go on a 300 mile trip? no problem! just don't drive for 10 days and you'll be all charged up.

Unless you are counting on the grid to make up the difference.

[jmg]

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

Whatever scenario you use, driving 30 miles a day or 300, the battery you charge from needs to be bigger than the battery you discharge to if you want to only use what you captured.

Not really. The battery you charge from needs to contain more charge than the amount the EV is discharged.

Ex: Your total home battery capacity is around 26 kwh (two battery cells). Lets say your EV has a 60 kwh battery. Your EV battery, in this case, is bigger than your total home battery cell capacity.

However, you only drove 50 miles that day which I believe is about 12 kwh. Your home battery would only use 12 kwh to charge your EV, and use the remaining 14 kwh to power your home.

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

And the solar system needs to be scaled to supply more than that much source charge.
You want to be able to put 300 miles into your EV? your power wall needs to have more than 300 mils of charge stored in it. Only need 30 miles of charge? get a small battery with 30+ miles storage and a smaller solar plant, and know you can never charge more than 30 miles a day from it. Want to go on a 300 mile trip? no problem! just don't drive for 10 days and you'll be all charged up.

Unless you are counting on the grid to make up the difference.

Solar systems are scaled according to your average usage plus 10% I believe (I forgot the exact number). House consumption is prioritized, with excess going to the battery cells. Once those are at capacity, it goes back to the grid for credits.

Remember, you aren't always using all your captured solar energy. At a given time, you will use much less, sometimes much more, which is why selling back to the grid or charging a battery is a good system.

Of course you are going to use the grid to make up the difference if your use exceeds solar capacity. I never suggested otherwise. The solar panels and battery, however, reduce overall load considerably, and hopefully you've given to the grid almost as much or more as you have taken (remember that 10% extra)

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by jmg

Not really. The battery you charge from needs to contain more charge than the amount the EV is discharged.

Ex: Your total home battery capacity is around 26 kwh (two battery cells). Lets say your EV has a 60 kwh battery. Your EV battery, in this case, is bigger than your total home battery cell capacity.

However, you only drove 50 miles that day which I believe is about 12 kwh. Your home battery would only use 12 kwh to charge your EV, and use the remaining 14 kwh to power your home.

And if you drive 200 miles, will you wait 2-3 days for it to recharge? If you have a 26KWh battery and a 26 KWh charger and are charging a half full 100kW battery, were do you expect those extra watts to come from? Or will you just concede to a range of no more than 50 miles a day?

It's like arguing I only use my electric can opener in my kitchen, so I can use 20 gauge wire and a 3 amp breaker. Or I have a 1500 Watt microwave, but I only run it for 6 minutes at a time, so I only need 150 watthours of supply. Systems has to be designed for and prepared to supply maximum/peak rating, and under continuous load, they need to be de-rated.

Solar systems are scaled according to your average usage plus 10% I believe (I forgot the exact number). House consumption is prioritized, with excess going to the battery cells. Once those are at capacity, it goes back to the grid for credits.

Remember, you aren't always using all your captured solar energy. At a given time, you will use much less, sometimes much more, which is why selling back to the grid or charging a battery is a good system.

Of course you are going to use the grid to make up the difference if your use exceeds solar capacity. I never suggested otherwise. The solar panels and battery, however, reduce overall load considerably, and hopefully you've given to the grid almost as much or more as you have taken (remember that 10% extra)

How much difference are we talking about, and when (time of day) will it be drawn from the grid? It's unpredictable, and grid capacity needs to remain high to cover peak demands. This includes things like spinning reserve. Even if you put up solar and your own battery, you are still loading the system. Dumping power into a grid when you have surplus and expecting it back later is not understanding how the grid works. this stuff needs coordination and we aren't there yet, and likely won't be for a while. Imagine being told by your charger that the grid wont' charge you car till it's ready, never mind your needs. That's what coordination will look like at times.

It wasn't' that long ago that wind generation in Texas exceeded demand and producers were paid negative $ (charged) for dumping power into the grid. Sometimes the grid can't take it, and other times it has little to spare. This will get worse with unstable renewables added to the portfolio. Batteries will help, but they are way behind the curve.

[jmg]

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

And if you drive 200 miles, will you wait 2-3 days for it to recharge? If you have a 26KWh battery and a 26 KWh charger and are charging a half full 100kW battery, were do you expect those extra watts to come from? Or will you just concede to a range of no more than 50 miles a day?

I already answered this in the very same post:

Originally Posted by jmg

Of course you are going to use the grid to make up the difference if your use exceeds solar capacity. I never suggested otherwise. The solar panels and battery, however, reduce overall load considerably, and hopefully you've given to the grid almost as much or more as you have taken (remember that 10% extra)

The original post I was replying to suggested that this would be a daily requirement. Obviously, it is not. Basically, you're not driving 200 miles every day, and the days you do, then you will draw power from the grid, but again, that's not everyday. It will still be overall less than if you didn't have panels and batteries, however.

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

It's like arguing I only use my electric can opener in my kitchen, so I can use 20 gauge wire and a 3 amp breaker. Or I have a 1500 Watt microwave, but I only run it for 6 minutes at a time, so I only need 150 watthours of supply. Systems has to be designed for and prepared to supply maximum/peak rating, and under continuous load, they need to be de-rated.

I also addressed that in the very same post:

Originally Posted by jmg

Solar systems are scaled according to your average usage plus 10% I believe (I forgot the exact number). House consumption is prioritized, with excess going to the battery cells. Once those are at capacity, it goes back to the grid for credits.

In essence, the grid, solar panels, and battery work in conjunction to power your house. If that's not clear, that's my fault, maybe I'm not good at explaining it.

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

Even if you put up solar and your own battery, you are still loading the system.

Of course, whatever the solar cannot provide, the grid and your battery will step in. They will augment each other. The net reliance on the grid, however, is still reduced compared to if you didn't have solar panels or a battery.

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

Dumping power into a grid when you have surplus and expecting it back later is not understanding how the grid works.

Sorry, I didn't say anyone is "expecting it back". What do you mean? Maybe you misunderstood me.

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

this stuff needs coordination and we aren't there yet, and likely won't be for a while. Imagine being told by your charger that the grid wont' charge you car till it's ready, never mind your needs. That's what coordination will look like at times.

The coordination is already there. These systems are literally already in place in thousands of homes in my area.

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

It wasn't' that long ago that wind generation in Texas exceeded demand and producers were paid negative $ (charged) for dumping power into the grid. Sometimes the grid can't take it, and other times it has little to spare. This will get worse with unstable renewables added to the portfolio. Batteries will help, but they are way behind the curve.

Sorry, I don't understand how this applies. You stated there is too much demand, now there isn't enough? Could you clarify?

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by jmg

I already answered this in the very same post:
The original post I was replying to suggested that this would be a daily requirement. Obviously, it is not. Basically, you're not driving 200 miles every day, and the days you do, then you will draw power from the grid, but again, that's not everyday. It will still be overall less than if you didn't have panels and batteries, however.

Some days you are a net exporter, others a net importer. Every day you are a net importer, you are loading the grid.

In essence, the grid, solar panels, and battery work in conjunction to power your house. If that's not clear, that's my fault, maybe I'm not good at explaining it.

It's all about when load is generated and served.

Of course, whatever the solar cannot provide, the grid and your battery will step in. They will augment each other. The net reliance on the grid, however, is still reduced compared to if you didn't have solar panels or a battery.

and if you didn't have an EV, the grid wouldn't be impacted at all. I'm hoping to see this stuff balanced so it can be reliably implemented. If we rush in and it's a disaster, what will happen to EV mandates and the progress that "could have been".

Sorry, I didn't say anyone is "expecting it back". What do you mean? Maybe you misunderstood me.

putting a watt into the grid and noon and taking a watt at midnight still means consuming 1 watt of dirty power. With all the solar already online and growing, how much carbon are you offsetting with that noon watt?

The coordination is already there. These systems are literally already in place in thousands of homes in my area.

Where you live perhaps, what about elsewhere. Do you live where they can change the thermostat settings in your house when it gets too hot?

https://bgr.com/tech/22000-smart-the...rking-outrage/

coming to a smart grid near you ...

Sorry, I don't understand how this applies. You stated there is too much demand, now there isn't enough? Could you clarify?

Just because you can net-positive your contribution over time (daily averaged) doesn't' always make for positive results. Producing when no one needs it and consuming when everyone else is consuming makes for an unreliable system, and kills the economics of the system when it reaches critical mass.

[jmg]

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

and if you didn't have an EV, the grid wouldn't be impacted at all. I'm hoping to see this stuff balanced so it can be reliably implemented. If we rush in and it's a disaster, what will happen to EV mandates and the progress that "could have been".

I know that's ultimately what you are getting at, but it just seems more like we tend to look at the circumstance with a slant towards confirmation bias rather than practical, realistic applications, on both sides.

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

putting a watt into the grid and noon and taking a watt at midnight still means consuming 1 watt of dirty power.

The dirtiness of the power entirely depends on your state's dependence on dirty source. That's what's good about the EV, we can change that without having to gut an EV to convert it to vegetable oil, diesel, hydrogen etc.

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

With all the solar already online and growing, how much carbon are you offsetting with that noon watt?

As much as possible.

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

Where you live perhaps, what about elsewhere. Do you live where they can change the thermostat settings in your house when it gets too hot?


https://bgr.com/tech/22000-smart-the...rking-outrage/

coming to a smart grid near you ...

Yeah a lot of climate change deniers, which also happen to be largely right-wing conspiracy wary conservatives for some reason, think big brother is coming into their house and TREADING ON THEM. It must be a big giant coincidence though right? It has nothing to do with politics. Probably doesn't really apply to you though.

However, read the article:

What made this possible was the customers enrolling in a program from the utility company. Specifically, one that offered them incentives in exchange for some degree of remote control over the smart thermostats. Those customers, for example, get a $100 credit at sign-up, and $25 each year.
“It’s a voluntary program,”

We have a similar voluntary program here. I did not sign up for it.

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

Just because you can net-positive your contribution over time (daily averaged) doesn't' always make for positive results. Producing when no one needs it and consuming when everyone else is consuming makes for an unreliable system, and kills the economics of the system when it reaches critical mass.

If the grid doesn't want your excess solar generation, it doesn't have to take it.
If you are consuming when everyone else is consuming, how is that different with or without solar panels? They still help. With batteries, they help even more. Solar seems to be a good way to help curb the added demand that EV's will bring.

Not sure what argument you are making here. Are you saying we shouldn't be using solar because of those few times that the grid doesn't need power? Doesn't really make sense to me.