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      07-23-2017, 04:01 PM   #199
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Explained above, and So now you're saying tesla market is prius drivers, and they will grab all the prius sales left and still only sell 200k cars when they need to sell 500k to meet expectations? Um, no. And also perceived and certain parts is definitely the right terms here. In Calif and the West coast yes. Rest of the country laughs at them and most have Bernie stickers. Still more mass market than an ev as it doesn't have the limitations and it is from a familiar and respected car maker.
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      07-23-2017, 04:10 PM   #200
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In honesty, I bet 1 out of 10 owners of tesla were rich converts trying to keep up a Hollywood image so they could be more hireable, which plays nowhere else though, and the rest of the tesla owners were greenie luxury car owners, gadget geeks, or guys who were attracted to 0-60 numbers. Those are all also not mass markets but niches. It's fine. Its a niche car. Nothing wrong with that. But that doesn't make it a 500k volume a year car.
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      07-23-2017, 05:01 PM   #201
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In honesty, I bet 1 out of 10 owners of tesla were rich converts trying to keep up a Hollywood image so they could be more hireable, which plays nowhere else though, and the rest of the tesla owners were greenie luxury car owners, gadget geeks, or guys who were attracted to 0-60 numbers. Those are all also not mass markets but niches. It's fine. Its a niche car. Nothing wrong with that. But that doesn't make it a 500k volume a year car.
You are the very embodiment of a straw man argument. Pick an issue and stick to it. No one has mentioned 500k annual sales, not even Tesla. That would be more than BMW, MB or Audi sell in the US, and it's fair to say that for the foresable future, Tesla will be 90+% US sales oriented.

They have 400k "presales" on the Model 3, but acknowledge that they won't fulfill those in one or even two or three years, and they won't sell every pre sale either. Tesla getting to 100k annual sales would be huge and would certainly accelerate their ability to relaunch the Roadster, update the S and bring out the Model Y, smaller SUV.
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      07-23-2017, 05:15 PM   #202
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Here's Teslas projection for 500,000 sales from 2018 and on annually which they bumped up to 2018 from 2020 and what they bet the farm on and what the stock price is predicated upon. Straw man my tail. I'm not the one trying to conveniently change facts.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/markrog.../#76b2ad01726e

Last edited by Fundguy1; 07-23-2017 at 05:38 PM..
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      07-23-2017, 05:52 PM   #203
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Mate, Tesla's gigafactory won't be completed until 2018.
Then they can start providing the batteries for the cars in great enough volume.

Stamped metal panels are the easy parts to produce
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      07-23-2017, 05:58 PM   #204
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Mate, they need a market to sell to. There isn't one in the US which is 90% of planned sales. Plans made when gas was $4 instead of $2 and Hillary was going to be president.
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      07-23-2017, 06:49 PM   #205
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Fuuuuck. Just had to google the price of fuel in the U.S.

Whilst not $2 per gallon, it is a shit load cheaper than the rest of the world.

In Australia, it is around $5.70 per gallon. You can hopefully understand why the rest of the world sees electric as a viable alternative.

I drive a turbo charged V8 as a daily car, and can watch the needle move whilst sitting at the lights. I am hardly a greenie/hippie as my car gets less than 10 mpg, but I've ordered a BMW as an intermediate car as the Tesla 3 was too far away.

Electric makes sense for the 90% of what my car is used for.
Actually, no car makes the most sense, as my car is parked for 95% of the time.
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      07-23-2017, 06:53 PM   #206
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Quote:
Originally Posted by seedyrom
Actually, no car makes the most sense, as my car is parked for 95% of the time.
lol, I hear you on that one. I recon its cost me half as much each year if I just ubered everywhere.

... but I like my expensive little sports car.
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      07-23-2017, 08:32 PM   #207
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Originally Posted by seedyrom View Post
Fuuuuck. Just had to google the price of fuel in the U.S.

Whilst not $2 per gallon, it is a shit load cheaper than the rest of the world.

In Australia, it is around $5.70 per gallon. You can hopefully understand why the rest of the world sees electric as a viable alternative.

I drive a turbo charged V8 as a daily car, and can watch the needle move whilst sitting at the lights. I am hardly a greenie/hippie as my car gets less than 10 mpg, but I've ordered a BMW as an intermediate car as the Tesla 3 was too far away.

Electric makes sense for the 90% of what my car is used for.
Actually, no car makes the most sense, as my car is parked for 95% of the time.
Yes, but tesla isnt planning on selling meaningful numbers around the world. The plan is 90% in the U.S. I average 50k miles a year driving so not as much parked.
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      07-23-2017, 08:38 PM   #208
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To be fair, our gas is cheap, but the actual price per gallon (or liter(or liter)) is comparable to most 1st world countries. The difference is that we haven't raised taxes on it in coming up on sixty years, so our infrastructure is absolute shite. Compare road and highway maintenance expenditures between the US and just about anywhere else, even South Africa or Andorra and you'll see why our bridges collapse, we all buy tread warranties and we know a lot about cracked wheels. Woo hoo, cheap gas, but crap roads, bullshit tax generation through red light cameras and speeding tickets and, well, you know, cops who might just shoot your Crocodile Dundee ass.
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      07-23-2017, 08:52 PM   #209
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Originally Posted by Red Bread View Post
To be fair, our gas is cheap, but the actual price per gallon (or liter(or liter)) is comparable to most 1st world countries. The difference is that we haven't raised taxes on it in coming up on sixty years, so our infrastructure is absolute shite. Compare road and highway maintenance expenditures between the US and just about anywhere else, even South Africa or Andorra and you'll see why our bridges collapse, we all buy tread warranties and we know a lot about cracked wheels. Woo hoo, cheap gas, but crap roads, bullshit tax generation through red light cameras and speeding tickets and, well, you know, cops who might just shoot your Crocodile Dundee ass.
The roads suck because the road money keeps getting syphoned off by the liberals for social programs. Roads are great where I live. They're doing a $2.3 billion dollar renovation to the highways here because people were upset with 10 min traffic delays. Haven't seen a pothole thst was meaningful in a decade and bridges are new and modern. As far as speeding tickets and red light cameras just look at Canada, England, Europe, and be thankful with what you have.
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      07-23-2017, 08:55 PM   #210
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It's weird that I live in Texas, breeding place of comically dumb governors and our roads, schools and alternative tax structures suck.
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      07-23-2017, 08:57 PM   #211
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It's weird that I live in Texas, breeding place of comically dumb governors and our roads, schools and alternative tax structures suck.
That is weird. We have no state income tax either, the roads are great, property tax low, schools medium. Could it be all the illegals sucking the life out of the tax base?
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      07-23-2017, 09:02 PM   #212
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Originally Posted by Red Bread View Post
It's weird that I live in Texas, breeding place of comically dumb governors and our roads, schools and alternative tax structures suck.
That is weird. We have no state income tax either, the roads are great, property tax low, schools medium. Could it be all the illegals sucking the life out of the tax base?
More than anything, TX did a little Ford trickery in 2008. Sold off our toll roads, license plate revenues and other governmental sources of revenue to show a short term profit through the rough patch. Now we're paying for it, much like Ford.
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      07-23-2017, 09:15 PM   #213
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Gotcha.
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      07-24-2017, 05:52 PM   #214
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Tesla will always be a battery manufacturer as a backup if the cars don't run as they hope.
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      07-24-2017, 06:00 PM   #215
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Besides, owners really seem to enjoy the car. Even petrolheads!:

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      07-25-2017, 06:33 AM   #216
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Mate, they need a market to sell to. There isn't one in the US which is 90% of planned sales. Plans made when gas was $4 instead of $2 and Hillary was going to be president.
Someone should tell the 500,000 people with preorders (with deposits) for the Model 3
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      07-25-2017, 07:19 AM   #217
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Someone should tell the 500,000 people with preorders (with deposits) for the Model 3
That's 400,000, hasn't expanded in 2 years, and represents less than a years worth of projected annual sales. Why if they got 400,000 orders 2 years ago haven't they expanded that number significantly since, especially with the 3 now finalized and approaching production? Tesla hasn't released a number of presales since April 2016. Why? A good number of experts say because if the number was good they would be bragging about it, but most likely that number hasn't expanded, but has contracted significantly as people pulled back their pre orders tired of waiting and not seeing the use as gas prices were falling.
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      07-25-2017, 09:42 AM   #218
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Originally Posted by Fundguy1 View Post
That's 400,000, hasn't expanded in 2 years, and represents less than a years worth of projected annual sales. Why if they got 400,000 orders 2 years ago haven't they expanded that number significantly since, especially with the 3 now finalized and approaching production? Tesla hasn't released a number of presales since April 2016. Why? A good number of experts say because if the number was good they would be bragging about it, but most likely that number hasn't expanded, but has contracted significantly as people pulled back their pre orders tired of waiting and not seeing the use as gas prices were falling.
I had read that it was now at 500,000, but even at 400,000 it pretty well invalidates your statement of "they need a market to sell to. There isn't one in the US which is 90% of planned sales".

I don't know any Tesla owners who considered the price of gas in their purchase. 100% of them bought it because it was a better car/ownership experience. I could see that changing as the cars get cheaper (more cost sensitive ownership base), but I think your way to wrapped up in the price of gas. Silent running, not having to fill up, massive torque, and simplicity of design are all very compelling features, and Tesla is years ahead of everyone else on autopilot (and gaining fast with the rate their taking data in compared to anyone else on the market).
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      07-25-2017, 09:51 AM   #219
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Originally Posted by Fundguy1 View Post
That's 400,000, hasn't expanded in 2 years, and represents less than a years worth of projected annual sales. Why if they got 400,000 orders 2 years ago haven't they expanded that number significantly since, especially with the 3 now finalized and approaching production? Tesla hasn't released a number of presales since April 2016. Why? A good number of experts say because if the number was good they would be bragging about it, but most likely that number hasn't expanded, but has contracted significantly as people pulled back their pre orders tired of waiting and not seeing the use as gas prices were falling.
I had read that it was now at 500,000, but even at 400,000 it pretty well invalidates your statement of "they need a market to sell to. There isn't one in the US which is 90% of planned sales".

I don't know any Tesla owners who considered the price of gas in their purchase. 100% of them bought it because it was a better car/ownership experience. I could see that changing as the cars get cheaper (more cost sensitive ownership base), but I think your way to wrapped up in the price of gas. Silent running, not having to fill up, massive torque, and simplicity of design are all very compelling features, and Tesla is years ahead of everyone else on autopilot (and gaining fast with the rate their taking data in compared to anyone else on the market).
Dammit man, he's convinced that he's right. Logic and reason have no place in this talk. He's just gonna keep getting more and more pissed odd as he's increasingly surrounded by Musk Mobiles.
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      07-25-2017, 10:26 AM   #220
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Let's not forget one of the top reasons people like the Tesla experience, no dealers. Parents had a model S, now in line for a model 3. Not having to interact with a dealer is a huge bonus and makes the buying process incredibly simple.
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