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      01-25-2020, 02:58 PM   #3059
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here is what I realized when I drove my bmw today. I was superior in engine power and handling to most ice cars around me. It felt good.
Tesla right now is the best when it comes to performance EV ie the bmw in the EV world. Handling wise bmw still is best.
If the future is EV and performance EV then tesla has an edge (currently).
If the future is not electric they are fucked.
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      01-25-2020, 03:01 PM   #3060
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Originally Posted by KRS_SN View Post
here is what I realized when I drove my bmw today. I was superior in engine power and handling to most ice cars around me. It felt good.
Tesla right now is the best when it comes to performance EV ie the bmw in the EV world. Handling wise bmw still is best.
If the future is EV and performance EV then tesla has an edge (currently).
If the future is not electric they are fucked.
But I don't think a lot of enthusiasts are ready to make the jump to EV, maybe in time but I look at Tesla and think meh.
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      01-25-2020, 04:03 PM   #3061
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Originally Posted by Salty Dog View Post
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Originally Posted by KRS_SN View Post
here is what I realized when I drove my bmw today. I was superior in engine power and handling to most ice cars around me. It felt good.
Tesla right now is the best when it comes to performance EV ie the bmw in the EV world. Handling wise bmw still is best.
If the future is EV and performance EV then tesla has an edge (currently).
If the future is not electric they are fucked.
But I don't think a lot of enthusiasts are ready to make the jump to EV, maybe in time but I look at Tesla and think meh.
I have 3 electric charger spots with parking at work. Tesla supercharger thingy 1.3 miles away. A Mitsubishi Outlander phev and a Renault zoe and a tesla s arrive 1hr early than anyone else to occupy those spots (for fear other ev might arrive earlier and take their spots). ie ar 8am Kudos to their commitment and they have adapted their lifestyle to their vehicles.
I arrive in my f 335d or my f15 x5 at 930 am after dropping offmy 3 kids to school and occupy a parking space for non ev's. My vehicle adapts to my lifestyle.
Convenience wise its a no brainer.
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      01-25-2020, 04:44 PM   #3062
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I still don't understand why EV in Scotland are given a £35000 interest free loan over 6 years and £3500 gross in rebate and £1000 for charger installation grant.
Politically in the UK which owns land rover with mostly diesel powered beasties it makes no sense.
I think politics is too left snd too green and has no resemblance to common man like me hence the discord
Greens need to be obliterated in the elections to have some hope of common sense.
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      01-27-2020, 02:40 PM   #3063
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I was at the mall this weekend (don't ask) and checked out the Tesla store for the first time.

My initial thought was "What a unique selling strategy!" You have entire families (little kids and all) checking out the car in great detail. How convenient is that? I for one would never take my entire family to a luxury car dealership, for fear of disturbing or inconveniencing anyone else.

Then I realized why Tesla can leave their cars for anyone to check out. There are absolutely no buttons/knobs that kids could break or damage. The interior is stupid minimalist but idiot proof. Brilliant.
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      01-28-2020, 12:43 AM   #3064
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Tesla has a great infrastructure and they will reap the benefits of that for years to come. They're also a software company that just happens to make cars. Microsoft is trying to do the same thing with hardware and they're doing a lot better now than when they first started.

I also believe Elon has something up his sleeves when it comes to battery energy density. He is boastful and he is the master of hype but he also has a cult following much like Apple.

The future is electric. It's just a matter of finding delivery and storage. Hydrogen fuel cell, energy dense batteries etc. Soon, level 3 chargers will be as prominent as gas stations. Remember that gasoline cars were novelties too back when there were no gas stations.

Tesla Model 3 is nothing to look at and it's an interior ergonomic nightmare. But it's quick and efficient and practically maintenance free.

Car makers have tried (and failed) with the center gauges, Mini, Saturn Ion Coupe and Tesla Model 3. If they added a heads up display or an additional driver's display, I would have already bought the thing.

I think Tesla will be around but it's not going to look anything like it is now. They have less than reputable customer service and myriad of build issues but once that's figured out, they're going to surprise the analysts once again.
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      01-28-2020, 06:33 AM   #3065
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Tesla has a great infrastructure and they will reap the benefits of that for years to come. They're also a software company that just happens to make cars. Microsoft is trying to do the same thing with hardware and they're doing a lot better now than when they first started.

I also believe Elon has something up his sleeves when it comes to battery energy density. He is boastful and he is the master of hype but he also has a cult following much like Apple.

The future is electric. It's just a matter of finding delivery and storage. Hydrogen fuel cell, energy dense batteries etc. Soon, level 3 chargers will be as prominent as gas stations. Remember that gasoline cars were novelties too back when there were no gas stations.

Tesla Model 3 is nothing to look at and it's an interior ergonomic nightmare. But it's quick and efficient and practically maintenance free.

Car makers have tried (and failed) with the center gauges, Mini, Saturn Ion Coupe and Tesla Model 3. If they added a heads up display or an additional driver's display, I would have already bought the thing.

I think Tesla will be around but it's not going to look anything like it is now. They have less than reputable customer service and myriad of build issues but once that's figured out, they're going to surprise the analysts once again.
So I'm not arguing that EV's have a place and they may be the norm at some point.

"Soon, level 3 chargers will be as prominent as gas stations." What does "soon" look like, I'm going to suggest that it's a decade before they have a significant market share in other than predictable markets.

"Car makers have tried (and failed) with the center gauges, Mini, Saturn Ion Coupe and Tesla Model 3"

I'm not sure I'd agree with that, Mini was produced from 1959 to 2000 with sales of 5,387,862. There are other cars that you didn't mention with centre instruments as well. The BMW mini has sold about 3 million units in since it went into production in 2000.
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      01-28-2020, 08:22 AM   #3066
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Originally Posted by GenXer View Post
Tesla has a great infrastructure and they will reap the benefits of that for years to come. They're also a software company that just happens to make cars. Microsoft is trying to do the same thing with hardware and they're doing a lot better now than when they first started.

I also believe Elon has something up his sleeves when it comes to battery energy density. He is boastful and he is the master of hype but he also has a cult following much like Apple.

The future is electric. It's just a matter of finding delivery and storage. Hydrogen fuel cell, energy dense batteries etc. Soon, level 3 chargers will be as prominent as gas stations. Remember that gasoline cars were novelties too back when there were no gas stations.

Tesla Model 3 is nothing to look at and it's an interior ergonomic nightmare. But it's quick and efficient and practically maintenance free.

Car makers have tried (and failed) with the center gauges, Mini, Saturn Ion Coupe and Tesla Model 3. If they added a heads up display or an additional driver's display, I would have already bought the thing.

I think Tesla will be around but it's not going to look anything like it is now. They have less than reputable customer service and myriad of build issues but once that's figured out, they're going to surprise the analysts once again.
Alternative fuel vehicles are certainly the future but not the near future. Look at market share data and you’ll understand why your statement about Level 3 chargers soon being as common as gas stations is misguided. Market share for electric vehicles in 2011 was 0.1% and as of the end of 2019 it’s a whopping 2.1%. The infrastructure isn’t there, the demand isn’t there and neither are the sales. We’re just not there yet and that’s ok.

Another detail to note: California in no way represents this country. The electric vehicle market in California is far and away ahead of others in this country and I believe a lot of people are extrapolating what’s happening in California to the rest of the country.

Last edited by Clark_Kent; 01-28-2020 at 08:48 PM.. Reason: typo
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      01-28-2020, 08:29 AM   #3067
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"Company planning documents, however, estimate that the factory would need about 98,000 gallons of water per hour."

https://electrek.co/2020/01/27/elon-...erns-protests/
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      01-28-2020, 08:30 AM   #3068
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Originally Posted by Clark_Kent View Post
Alternative fuel vehicles are certainly the future but not the near future. Look at market share data and youíll understand why your statement about Level 3 chargers soon being as common as gas stations is misguided. Market share for electric vehicles in 2011 was 0.1% and as of the end of 2019 itís a whopping 2.1%. The infrastructure isnít there, the demand isnít there and neither are the sales. Weíre just no there yet and thatís ok.

Another detail to note: California in no way represents this country. The electric vehicle market in California is far and away ahead of others in this country and I believe a lot of people are extrapolating whatís happening in California to the rest of the country.
You're bang on. I think California and some other "green" cities may show a disproportionate number of EV's, but get out of these locations and EV's are quite scarce.
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      01-29-2020, 12:35 AM   #3069
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Originally Posted by Clark_Kent View Post
2011 was 0.1% and as of the end of 2019 it’s a whopping 2.1% ... I believe a lot of people are extrapolating what’s happening in California to the rest of the country.
That's a faulty belief Clark since market share data is freely available and sales are growing exponentially on 3 continents; also consider your market share data is a 2000% increase! I think any startup CEO would take that market penetration rate ("only 2000% market share growth in 8 years?!?" was never said by anyone ever)

Take a look below to see in context how small upstarts end up stealing big market share. Who'd you rather be today: Ford/GM or the Japanese? Current market share ain't a measure of financial strength and/or future growth.
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Originally Posted by Salty Dog View Post
You're bang on. I think California and some other "green" cities may show a disproportionate number of EV's, but get out of these locations and EV's are quite scarce.
Just like BMWs and Benzs used to be! I'm old enough to remember people saying "omg, don't get a european import! they're so unreliable and you'll never find the parts, tools, or mechanics to fix it!"

Anyway, you know me, loves me some data, so here's US market share from 1961 - 2016. Notice how BMW (lower right) doesn't really take off until the 1990s, but grows from quite scarce to a playa. (and you can see Tesla in blue in the lower right pop in there too!)



And the 90s is key, because remember the transition from the "Early Adopters" to the "Early Majority"? That's when BMW made the transition, which required tons of infrastructure (dealerships, repair, etc), but it happened because as sales grew network effects and exponential growth took over. For Tesla, if they make it, it'll be this decade.

And our first clue if Tesla will make that transition is coming tomorrow! 2019Q4 earnings!

Personally i'm happy to go on record here to say they're going to be strong. maybe a record. If you're going to buy TSLA, tonight's the time to place the order!
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      01-29-2020, 10:31 AM   #3070
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Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post
That's a faulty belief Clark since market share data is freely available and sales are growing exponentially on 3 continents; also consider your market share data is a 2000% increase! I think any startup CEO would take that market penetration rate ("only 2000% market share growth in 8 years?!?" was never said by anyone ever)

Take a look below to see in context how small upstarts end up stealing big market share. Who'd you rather be today: Ford/GM or the Japanese? Current market share ain't a measure of financial strength and/or future growth.


Just like BMWs and Benzs used to be! I'm old enough to remember people saying "omg, don't get a european import! they're so unreliable and you'll never find the parts, tools, or mechanics to fix it!"

Anyway, you know me, loves me some data, so here's US market share from 1961 - 2016. Notice how BMW (lower right) doesn't really take off until the 1990s, but grows from quite scarce to a playa. (and you can see Tesla in blue in the lower right pop in there too!)



And the 90s is key, because remember the transition from the "Early Adopters" to the "Early Majority"? That's when BMW made the transition, which required tons of infrastructure (dealerships, repair, etc), but it happened because as sales grew network effects and exponential growth took over. For Tesla, if they make it, it'll be this decade.

And our first clue if Tesla will make that transition is coming tomorrow! 2019Q4 earnings!

Personally i'm happy to go on record here to say they're going to be strong. maybe a record. If you're going to buy TSLA, tonight's the time to place the order!
Itís not a faulty belief at all. Youíre comparing 55 years of data to 8 years. Not to mention, the proliferation of internal combustion engine cars should not be compared to electric vehicles. Not sure how you can credibly draw inferences between the two. To the point on percentage growth: on its face it sounds fantastic and a data point youíd hear on a call with Wall Street Analysts. Itís a distraction. Look at the sheer numbers. Thatís another part of the equation and it matters. Itís still a minute piece of the pie considering ~80 million passengers cars were sold worldwide last year. It will take some time to move the needle with respect to market share. Thatís proven in the graphic you shared. It took far more than 8 years for BMW, Mercedes et al. to really make inroads from a market share perspective.

Iím not anti-TSLA. I want to be very clear about that. I absolutely believe alternative fuel vehicles are the future but itís too early. It will take more time. Thatís a fact. Weíre simply not in a place where we can turn in our ICE vehicles and live happily ever after. Thatís my point. Itís exhausting when I hear people push the narrative, ďIn the next 3-5 years (insert ambitious alternative vehicle quip)Ē.

I traded TSLA options about 10 years ago and it was fun and incredibly profitable but I think Iíll pass on buying TSLA individual securities at this time. Thanks for the buy recommendation though.
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      01-29-2020, 11:51 AM   #3071
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Originally Posted by GenXer View Post
Tesla has a great infrastructure and they will reap the benefits of that for years to come. They're also a software company that just happens to make cars. Microsoft is trying to do the same thing with hardware and they're doing a lot better now than when they first started.

I also believe Elon has something up his sleeves when it comes to battery energy density. He is boastful and he is the master of hype but he also has a cult following much like Apple.

The future is electric. It's just a matter of finding delivery and storage. Hydrogen fuel cell, energy dense batteries etc. Soon, level 3 chargers will be as prominent as gas stations. Remember that gasoline cars were novelties too back when there were no gas stations.

Tesla Model 3 is nothing to look at and it's an interior ergonomic nightmare. But it's quick and efficient and practically maintenance free.

Car makers have tried (and failed) with the center gauges, Mini, Saturn Ion Coupe and Tesla Model 3. If they added a heads up display or an additional driver's display, I would have already bought the thing.

I think Tesla will be around but it's not going to look anything like it is now. They have less than reputable customer service and myriad of build issues but once that's figured out, they're going to surprise the analysts once again.
tesla is not a software company lmao. not by any stretch of the imagination. They are a hardware company, or better yet, a car manufacturer. The fact that they have software devs is auxiliary to their core business.
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      01-29-2020, 12:29 PM   #3072
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Clark_Kent View Post
Itís not a faulty belief at all. Youíre comparing 55 years of data to 8 years. Not to mention, the proliferation of internal combustion engine cars should not be compared to electric vehicles. Not sure how you can credibly draw inferences between the two. To the point on percentage growth: on its face it sounds fantastic and a data point youíd hear on a call with Wall Street Analysts. Itís a distraction. Look at the sheer numbers. Thatís another part of the equation and it matters. Itís still a minute piece of the pie considering ~80 million passengers cars were sold worldwide last year. It will take some time to move the needle with respect to market share. Thatís proven in the graphic you shared. It took far more than 8 years for BMW, Mercedes et al. to really make inroads from a market share perspective.

Iím not anti-TSLA. I want to be very clear about that. I absolutely believe alternative fuel vehicles are the future but itís too early. It will take more time. Thatís a fact. Weíre simply not in a place where we can turn in our ICE vehicles and live happily ever after. Thatís my point. Itís exhausting when I hear people push the narrative, ďIn the next 3-5 years (insert ambitious alternative vehicle quip)Ē.

I traded TSLA options about 10 years ago and it was fun and incredibly profitable but I think Iíll pass on buying TSLA individual securities at this time. Thanks for the buy recommendation though.
Well said, I won't comment on whether or not Tesla is a good investment from a stock point of view, but I think you summed up the comparator to ICE proliferation succinctly.
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      01-29-2020, 12:47 PM   #3073
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Clark_Kent View Post
To the point on percentage growth: on its face it sounds fantastic and a data point you’d hear on a call with Wall Street Analysts. It’s a distraction. Look at the sheer numbers. That’s another part of the equation and it matters. It’s still a minute piece of the pie considering ~80 million passengers cars were sold worldwide last year. It will take some time to move the needle with respect to market share. That’s proven in the graphic you shared. It took far more than 8 years for BMW, Mercedes et al. to really make inroads from a market share perspective.
Nope, look again: from the time BMW transitioned from early adopters (starting in the early 80s) to early majority (starting in the early 90s) was about 8-10 years, same as Tesla from 2011 to 2019 ... then watch what happens from the late 90s into the 2000s: BMW grows by leaps. Why? I'd say because people liked the unique product and got used to the idea of buying a European import. Phase 1 early adopters, Phase 2 early majority.

As for the comparison of BEVs to ICE, that's the whole point Clark! Let's break down the macros of your point:

(Clark 1.) Sure, BEV marketshare grew by 2000% in 8 years (21x!)
(Clark 2.) BUT! As of 2020, that growth will halt and drop off a cliff, because ...
(Clark 3.) I, Clark, believe BEVs aren't a like-for-like vehicle; consumers, for the foreseeable future, will see them as a different vehicle class altogether, thus there's a limit to the market segment size buying them and we've already maxed that out. No more exponential growth. Trickle growth from here.

Sound right? Now let's look at my point:

(GG 1.) BEV marketshare has grown 2000% in 8 years
(GG 2.) As of 2020, there's no sign of BEV global sales slowing and auto companies are investing 1/2 a trillion to pump out more models.
(GG 3.) BEV growth in 2020, specifically with Tesla, isn't coming from people saying "I want a BEV", it's coming from people saying, "I want a Tesla" because Teslas are unique products with a unique feature package (e.g., Joe Rogan has a Porsche GT3RS and said this about his Tesla)
(GG 4.) Unique products + accessibility (like direct-to-consumer sales in Michigan) creates network effects which drives exponential growth. Just like BMW did!
(GG 5.) This growth will power Tesla's other core business, Tesla Energy, which has the ability to make superchargers self-sufficient and would need about 7,500 of them to make them ubiquitous, and Tesla is already selling power to their customers for ~$0.28 per kWh, which is roughly a 42% markup. And that excludes people buying home systems.

It's funny how people think BEVs will be limited by infrastructure - entrepreneurs see market gaps as opportunity, and that's going to create 1000s of jobs ... for people who'll probably buy BEVs.

Anyway, if I get your point: you believe existing BEV buyers are somehow different (they want a BEV) than future BEV buyers (they want ICE), and this difference will drastically slow sales growth.

My point is, that's never happened in the history of car sales when new products enter the market; when i recommended my Grandfather buy a Honda, he told me nobody would buy Japanese cars.

Good judgement comes from experience and experience comes from bad judgement. One of us is going to get a lot of experience out of this!
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Originally Posted by mkoesel View Post
I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.

Last edited by GrussGott; 01-29-2020 at 12:58 PM..
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      01-29-2020, 01:19 PM   #3074
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Clark_Kent View Post
To the point on percentage growth: on its face it sounds fantastic and a data point you'd hear on a call with Wall Street Analysts. It's a distraction. Look at the sheer numbers. That's another part of the equation and it matters. It's still a minute piece of the pie considering ~80 million passengers cars were sold worldwide last year. It will take some time to move the needle with respect to market share. That's proven in the graphic you shared. It took far more than 8 years for BMW, Mercedes et al. to really make inroads from a market share perspective.
Nope, look again: from the time BMW transitioned from early adopters (starting in the early 80s) to early majority (starting in the early 90s) was about 8-10 years, same as Tesla from 2011 to 2019 ... then watch what happens from the late 90s into the 2000s: BMW grows by leaps. Why? I'd say because people liked the unique product and got used to the idea of buying a European import. Phase 1 early adopters, Phase 2 early majority.

As for the comparison of BEVs to ICE, that's the whole point Clark! Let's break down the macros of your point:

(Clark 1.) Sure, BEV marketshare grew by 2000% in 8 years (21x!)
(Clark 2.) BUT! As of 2020, that growth will halt and drop off a cliff, because ...
(Clark 3.) I, Clark, believe BEVs aren't a like-for-like vehicle; consumers, for the foreseeable future, will see them as a different vehicle class altogether, thus there's a limit to the market segment size buying them and we've already maxed that out. No more exponential growth. Trickle growth from here.

Sound right? Now let's look at my point:

(GG 1.) BEV marketshare has grown 2000% in 8 years
(GG 2.) As of 2020, there's no sign of BEV global sales slowing and auto companies are investing 1/2 a trillion to pump out more models.
(GG 3.) BEV growth in 2020, specifically with Tesla, isn't coming from people saying "I want a BEV", it's coming from people saying, "I want a Tesla" because Teslas are unique products with a unique feature package (e.g., [COLOR="Blue"]Joe Rogan has a Porsche GT3RS and said this about his Tesla[/COLOR])
(GG 4.) Unique products + accessibility ([COLOR="blue"]like direct-to-consumer sales in Michigan[/COLOR]) creates network effects which drives exponential growth. Just like BMW did!
(GG 5.) This growth will power Tesla's other core business, Tesla Energy, which has the ability to make superchargers self-sufficient and would need about 7,500 of them to make them ubiquitous, and Tesla is already selling power to their customers for ~$0.28 per kWh, which is roughly a 42% markup. And that excludes people buying home systems.

It's funny how people think BEVs will be limited by infrastructure - entrepreneurs see market gaps as opportunity, and that's going to create 1000s of jobs ... for people who'll probably buy BEVs.

Anyway, if I get your point: you believe existing BEV buyers are somehow different (they want a BEV) than future BEV buyers (they want ICE), and this difference will drastically slow sales growth.

My point is, that's never happened in the history of car sales when new products enter the market; when i recommended my Grandfather buy a Honda, he told me nobody would buy Japanese cars.

Good judgement comes from experience and experience comes from bad judgement. One of us is going to get a lot of experience out of this!
Elon, go drive the M4 and step away from the keyboard.
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      01-29-2020, 04:36 PM   #3075
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Record quarter for TSLA:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/29/tesl...s-q4-2019.html
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      01-29-2020, 04:59 PM   #3076
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tesla is not a software company lmao. not by any stretch of the imagination. They are a hardware company, or better yet, a car manufacturer. The fact that they have software devs is auxiliary to their core business.
Tesla is more of an energy company. Musk has stated that he knows that Tesla as a car company won't be very viable once the other automakers catch up with e-vehicles. His main goal when it comes to the auto industry is to be the company that has the best and most advanced battery cells available and those batteries would be the primary choice to power e-vehicles across all makes.
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      01-29-2020, 05:56 PM   #3077
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Quote:
Originally Posted by XutvJet View Post
Tesla is more of an energy company. Musk has stated that he knows that Tesla as a car company won't be very viable once the other automakers catch up with e-vehicles. His main goal when it comes to the auto industry is to be the company that has the best and most advanced battery cells available and those batteries would be the primary choice to power e-vehicles across all makes.
Then Tesla should have approached the EV market much in the way LG has with GM.
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      01-29-2020, 06:10 PM   #3078
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new vegan gluten free restaurant opens on a street lined by burger king and McDonald's and sees sales jump from 0 to £1000 pounds per month.
Meanwhile sales at burger king and McDonald's are down 10% but still in the millions.
Oh no the whole world is going to eat vegan gluten free food and let's all invest in shares of this new restaurant.
HELLO most people like McDonald's and burger king and its cheap and tasty and will continue to exist and make profits.
Years down the line McDonald's and burger king introduce a gluten free and Vegan menu too and the vegan gluten free business goes into administration.
Haha who are the mugs now.
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      01-29-2020, 06:18 PM   #3079
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Here's my hot take:

The utilization for cars, the second highest expenditure after a house, is in the single digits, which is ridiculously low. As car ownership becomes less of a thing (teenagers are happy to just take an uber), the utilization of cars will go significantly up through some flavor of rideshare. Imagine if cars has a 75% utilization rate.

Well at that point, the number of cars on the road is going to plummet, and the buyers aren't going to be normal human beings. Instead, the buyers will be like taxi companies (a future Uber) or the manufacturers themselves will transition to becoming transportation companies (as stated by Ford and GM CEOs) instead of manufacturers.

If the number of cars on the road is going to plummet, car manufacturers are going the way of airlines (I personally believe that Ford and GM can't coexist). Whoever transitions best (not necessarily fastest) to being a transportation company is going to win out. Technology and reliability are going to be the name of the game. Tesla is ahead of the game on the former, but the other OEMs are better at the latter.
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      01-29-2020, 06:18 PM   #3080
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KRS_SN View Post
new vegan gluten free restaurant opens on a street lined by burger king and McDonald's and sees sales jump from 0 to £1000 pounds per month.
Meanwhile sales at burger king and McDonald's are down 10% but still in the millions.
Oh no the whole world is going to eat vegan gluten free food and let's all invest in shares of this new restaurant.
HELLO most people like McDonald's and burger king and its cheap and tasty and will continue to exist and make profits.
Years down the line McDonald's and burger king introduce a gluten free and Vegan menu too and the vegan gluten free business goes into administration.
Haha who are the mugs now.
Funny, so Tim Hortons a coffee and donut change that is iconic in Canada. They serve sandwiches etc and a few months ago introduced beyond meat products....today they announced they will stop selling them because they weren't selling.....I guess people want what hey want don't they.
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