BMW Garage BMW Meets Register Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read
BIMMERPOST Universal Forums Off-Topic Discussions Board Politics/Religion Is Benjamin Netanyahu a psychopath?

Post Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
      05-04-2015, 01:42 PM   #111
Taskmaster
Banned
Japan
2331
Rep
9,157
Posts

Drives: M235i 6MT / E92 328 Msport 6MT
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: Florida

iTrader: (6)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dalko43 View Post
Define 'a long ways off.' And do you have an article referencing that break out time estimate by US intelligence?

Would you mind posting a link or referencing where you go this whole excerpt from?

I really hope this wasn't copy and pasted from Wikipedia.
It was, and you'll notice those numbers in the wikipeada article lead you directly to the source material.

But 16 different intelligence agencies < some guy on the internet. Right?
Appreciate 0
      05-04-2015, 02:01 PM   #112
Dalko43
Captain
168
Rep
894
Posts

Drives: 2011 Toyota 4Runner Trail
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Upstate NY

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheAxiom View Post
It was, and you'll notice those numbers in the wikipeada article lead you directly to the source material.

But 16 different intelligence agencies < some guy on the internet. Right?
The problem is wikipedia articles often:
1) use dead or incorrect links/references

2) cherry-pick information

3) allow anonymous users to modify articles/information

If Axiom were to post an actual link to that wikipedia excerpt, or better yet, post links to the source sites and articles themselves, we could have an actual conversation.

Until then, his points are baseless since wikipedia is not a credible source of information.
__________________
Current: 2011 Toyota 4Runner Trail
Sold: 2013 BMW 335is Coupe
Appreciate 0
      05-04-2015, 02:04 PM   #113
Taskmaster
Banned
Japan
2331
Rep
9,157
Posts

Drives: M235i 6MT / E92 328 Msport 6MT
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: Florida

iTrader: (6)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dalko43 View Post
The problem is wikipedia articles often:
1) use dead or incorrect links/references

2) cherry-pick information

3) allow anonymous users to modify articles/information

If Axiom were to post an actual link to that wikipedia excerpt, or better yet, post links to the source sites and articles themselves, we could have an actual conversation.

Until then, his points are baseless since wikipedia is not a credible source of information.
Please, find out what you specifically take issue with and address me with it here. Until then, I'll assume you are purposely being dismissive because you literally don't have a leg to stand on at this point.
Appreciate 0
      05-04-2015, 02:04 PM   #114
UncleWede
Long Time Admirer, First Time Owner
UncleWede's Avatar
United_States
9583
Rep
8,231
Posts

Drives: E90 325i Arctic
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Oxnard, CA

iTrader: (0)

"Bonjour?"
Appreciate 0
      05-04-2015, 02:22 PM   #115
Dalko43
Captain
168
Rep
894
Posts

Drives: 2011 Toyota 4Runner Trail
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Upstate NY

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheAxiom View Post
Please, find out what you specifically take issue with and address me with it here. Until then, I'll assume you are purposely being dismissive because you literally don't have a leg to stand on at this point.
You're posting wikipedia articles to serve as your 'evidence' and I'm the one who doesn't have a leg to stand on?

And why are you so reluctant to provide a link to this excerpt below?


Quote:
Originally Posted by TheAxiom View Post
Opinion, and again from our intel, Iran doesn't have nuclear weapons and are a long ways of from creating some.

Out intell says otherwise -
Quote:
In 2012, sixteen U.S. intelligence agencies, including the CIA, reported that Iran was pursuing research that could enable it to produce nuclear weapons, but was not attempting to do so.[15] The senior officers of all of the major American intelligence agencies stated that there was no conclusive evidence that Iran has made any attempt to produce nuclear weapons since 2003.[16] In a 2007 National Intelligence Estimate, the United States Intelligence Community assessed that Iran had ended all "nuclear weapon design and weaponization work" in 2003.[17] U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta stated in January 2012 that Iran was pursuing a nuclear weapons capability, but was not attempting to produce nuclear weapons.[18] In 2009, U.S. intelligence assessed that Iranian intentions were unknown.[19][20] Some European intelligence believe Iran has resumed its alleged nuclear weapons design work.[21] Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said he had seen no evidence of any nuclear weapons program in Iran,[22] while Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said Iran was close to having the capability to produce nuclear weapons.[23][24] Iran has called for nuclear weapons states to disarm and for the Middle East to be a nuclear weapon free zone.[25]

And for the record, that 2012 intelligence assessment that you referenced yielded several key points that your wikipedia article neglected to include:
1) Iran has been continually increasing its uranium enrichment capabilities and would have the capability to produce a nuclear bomb in a very short time frame "if it so chooses."

Where did that "long ways off" comment come from? It seems to contradict what the actual report says, no?

2) Iran has been expanding its ballistic missile arsenal with the technological capability of delivering nuclear payloads.

3)The assessment stated in no uncertain terms that though Iran's intentions to build nuclear weapons were unknown at that time, it was well within that country's capability.

Here is an article referencing the 2012 assessment:
https://www.armscontrol.org/reports/...06/Section_one

And here is a link to the 2012 assessment itself:
http://www.intelligence.senate.gov/120131/clapper.pdf

You see how that works? Proper referencing can go a long way in making an argument...maybe keep that in mind when you write posts in the future?
__________________
Current: 2011 Toyota 4Runner Trail
Sold: 2013 BMW 335is Coupe

Last edited by Dalko43; 05-04-2015 at 02:36 PM..
Appreciate 0
      05-04-2015, 03:38 PM   #116
Taskmaster
Banned
Japan
2331
Rep
9,157
Posts

Drives: M235i 6MT / E92 328 Msport 6MT
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: Florida

iTrader: (6)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dalko43 View Post
You're posting wikipedia articles to serve as your 'evidence' and I'm the one who doesn't have a leg to stand on?

And why are you so reluctant to provide a link to this excerpt below?





And for the record, that 2012 intelligence assessment that you referenced yielded several key points that your wikipedia article neglected to include:
1) Iran has been continually increasing its uranium enrichment capabilities and would have the capability to produce a nuclear bomb in a very short time frame "if it so chooses."

Where did that "long ways off" comment come from? It seems to contradict what the actual report says, no?

2) Iran has been expanding its ballistic missile arsenal with the technological capability of delivering nuclear payloads.

3)The assessment stated in no uncertain terms that though Iran's intentions to build nuclear weapons were unknown at that time, it was well within that country's capability.

Here is an article referencing the 2012 assessment:
https://www.armscontrol.org/reports/...06/Section_one

And here is a link to the 2012 assessment itself:
http://www.intelligence.senate.gov/120131/clapper.pdf

You see how that works? Proper referencing can go a long way in making an argument...maybe keep that in mind when you write posts in the future?
Months- about 9-11 or so
http://www.businessinsider.com/how-l...-weapon-2015-3

Again, none of those sources that you posted disprove what I orginally posted - Iran is NOT pursuing nuclear weapons, and if would take them almost a year just to enrich the uranium to utilize it.

Edit a report as of 2013
http://www.intelligence.senate.gov/130312/clapper.pdf
Appreciate 0
      05-04-2015, 03:55 PM   #117
Dalko43
Captain
168
Rep
894
Posts

Drives: 2011 Toyota 4Runner Trail
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Upstate NY

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheAxiom View Post
9-11 months for Iran's nuclear break out? That doesn't sound like a "long ways off" to me. Where did that phrase of yours come from?

At this point your simply regurgitating info that I have already brought up. I already referenced intelligence estimates (by US and International groups) that ranged from 3-12 months for Iran's nuclear break out.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheAxiom View Post
Again, none of those sources that you posted disprove what I orginally posted - Iran is NOT pursuing nuclear weapons
Well according to page 5 of the 2012 World Threat Assessment of the US Intel Community for the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, Iran's nuclear intentions have not been determined though it is quite clear that they are expanding their nuclear capabilities to keep that option of nuclear weapons open (which is not the same as what you are saying):

Quote:
We assess Iran is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons, in part by developing various nuclear capabilities that better position it to produce such weapons, should it choose to do so . We do not know, however, if Iran will eventually decide to build nuclear weapons.
The report which you provided, states essentially the same thing.

On a side note, it looks like you've learned how to use real sources and reference them accordingly...so this exchange hasn't been a total waste of time.
__________________
Current: 2011 Toyota 4Runner Trail
Sold: 2013 BMW 335is Coupe
Appreciate 0
      05-04-2015, 05:06 PM   #118
Taskmaster
Banned
Japan
2331
Rep
9,157
Posts

Drives: M235i 6MT / E92 328 Msport 6MT
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: Florida

iTrader: (6)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dalko43 View Post
9-11 months for Iran's nuclear break out? That doesn't sound like a "long ways off" to me. Where did that phrase of yours come from?

At this point your simply regurgitating info that I have already brought up. I already referenced intelligence estimates (by US and International groups) that ranged from 3-12 months for Iran's nuclear break out.



Well according to page 5 of the 2012 World Threat Assessment of the US Intel Community for the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, Iran's nuclear intentions have not been determined though it is quite clear that they are expanding their nuclear capabilities to keep that option of nuclear weapons open (which is not the same as what you are saying):



The report which you provided, states essentially the same thing.

On a side note, it looks like you've learned how to use real sources and reference them accordingly...so this exchange hasn't been a total waste of time.
It obviously has, because you have yet to refute the points which I made, which are

A. Iran has no nuclear weapons
B. Iran is not currently creating nuclear weapons
C. The time frame for Iran to create a warhead (or at least enrich material to do so) are around 9-11 months.

Quote:
ran already has the largest inventory of ballistic missiles in the Middle East, and it is expanding the
scale, reach, and sophistication of its ballistic missile arsenal. Iran’s growing ballistic missile inventory
and its domestic production of anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCM) and development of its first long-range
land attack cruise missile provide capabilities to enhance its power projection. Tehran views its
conventionally armed missiles as an integral part of its strategy to deter—and if necessary retaliate
against—forces in the region,
including US forces.
to answer your questions on long range missiles.

There is also this:
Quote:
Despite this progress, we assess Iran could not divert safeguarded material and produce a
weapon-worth of WGU before this activity is discovered.
Appreciate 0
      05-04-2015, 11:02 PM   #119
Holshot
Private First Class
United_States
24
Rep
130
Posts

Drives: '11 BMW 335is
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Baltimore, MD

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheAxiom View Post

A. Iran has no nuclear weapons
B. Iran is not currently creating nuclear weapons
C. The time frame for Iran to create a warhead (or at least enrich material to do so) are around 9-11 months.

There is also this:
I'll sleep so much better tonight having been reassured by YOU that Iran has no nuclear weapons or ambitions...

If I recall there were people like YOU and your mindset back under the leadership of Bill, uh, I mean Hillary Clinton who also said that N. Korea has no nuclear weapons nor do they have any intentions of creating nuclear weapons.... So what are they up to now a days? Estimates place the number to be at LEAST 20 or more nukes in their arsenal. There is this thing called history that liberals seem to want to forget and rather then looking to history and avoiding past mistakes, they would rather just repeat them. Keep drinking that Coolaid... BTW, I've got a bridge in Brooklyn for sale, you interested? Real cheap...
Appreciate 0
      05-04-2015, 11:23 PM   #120
Taskmaster
Banned
Japan
2331
Rep
9,157
Posts

Drives: M235i 6MT / E92 328 Msport 6MT
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: Florida

iTrader: (6)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Holshot View Post
I'll sleep so much better tonight having been reassured by YOU that Iran has no nuclear weapons or ambitions...

If I recall there were people like YOU and your mindset back under the leadership of Bill, uh, I mean Hillary Clinton who also said that N. Korea has no nuclear weapons nor do they have any intentions of creating nuclear weapons.... So what are they up to now a days? Estimates place the number to be at LEAST 20 or more nukes in their arsenal. There is this thing called history that liberals seem to want to forget and rather then looking to history and avoiding past mistakes, they would rather just repeat them. Keep drinking that Coolaid... BTW, I've got a bridge in Brooklyn for sale, you interested? Real cheap...
Appreciate 0
      05-05-2015, 07:55 AM   #121
Dalko43
Captain
168
Rep
894
Posts

Drives: 2011 Toyota 4Runner Trail
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Upstate NY

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheAxiom View Post
A. Iran has no nuclear weapons
I never said otherwise.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheAxiom View Post
B. Iran is not currently creating nuclear weapons
Though we all acknowledge that Iran has been enriching Uranium and building the equipment required to construct nuclear weapons (see the Senate reports which both you and I cited previously as evidence).

And we also know that Iran has been keeping military sites off limits to potential weapons inspections regimens.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheAxiom View Post
C. The time frame for Iran to create a warhead (or at least enrich material to do so) are around 9-11 months.
That was a point that I originally brought up. You were the one claiming that Iran was "a long ways off" from getting nukes...I guess you tune has changed on that.


I am not going to reply to the rest of your post unless you start citing where you got those quotes from. You are only shooting yourself in the foot when you start using unverified quotes (and Wikipedia articles) as your evidence.
__________________
Current: 2011 Toyota 4Runner Trail
Sold: 2013 BMW 335is Coupe
Appreciate 0
      05-05-2015, 08:02 AM   #122
Taskmaster
Banned
Japan
2331
Rep
9,157
Posts

Drives: M235i 6MT / E92 328 Msport 6MT
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: Florida

iTrader: (6)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dalko43 View Post
I never said otherwise.



Though we all acknowledge that Iran has been enriching Uranium and building the equipment required to construct nuclear weapons (see the Senate reports which both you and I cited previously as evidence).

5% enrichment - again, they are not actively building or pursuing nuclear weapons. /end


And we also know that Iran has been keeping military sites off limits to potential weapons inspections regimens.

Military secrets =/= building nukes - again, they are not actively building or pursing nuclear weapons. /end

That was a point that I originally brought up. You were the one claiming that Iran was "a long ways off" from getting nukes...I guess you tune has changed on that.

I don't, Iran isn't getting nuclear capability without us knowing - it's still a lengthy process.
Quote:
Despite this progress, we assess Iran could not divert safeguarded material and produce a
weapon-worth of WGU before this activity is discovered.

I am not going to reply to the rest of your post unless you start citing where you got those quotes from. You are only shooting yourself in the foot when you start using unverified quotes (and Wikipedia articles) as your evidence.
You should actually click on the links I posted, you would learn something.
http://www.intelligence.senate.gov/120131/clapper.pdf
Appreciate 0
      05-05-2015, 08:13 AM   #123
Dalko43
Captain
168
Rep
894
Posts

Drives: 2011 Toyota 4Runner Trail
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Upstate NY

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
Secret military sites = inspectors can't verify that Iran is compliance with any arms control regimen.

5% enriched Uranium:
1) is foundation from which Iran can enrich to higher degrees (which it has done in the past)

2) only pertains to those Uranium stockpiles that we know of

3) Iran sits on one of the largest oil reserves in the world. Why the hell do they need Uranium and nuclear facilities to begin with?



And if you really believe that Iran isn't actively trying to attain nuclear weapons, then why is this deal even necessary in the first place? If Iran was just building civilian nuclear reactors, with no malicious intent, wouldn't you agree that any arms control deal is a moot point?
__________________
Current: 2011 Toyota 4Runner Trail
Sold: 2013 BMW 335is Coupe
Appreciate 0
      05-05-2015, 11:40 AM   #124
Taskmaster
Banned
Japan
2331
Rep
9,157
Posts

Drives: M235i 6MT / E92 328 Msport 6MT
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: Florida

iTrader: (6)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dalko43 View Post
Secret military sites = inspectors can't verify that Iran is compliance with any arms control regimen.

5% enriched Uranium:
1) is foundation from which Iran can enrich to higher degrees (which it has done in the past)

2) only pertains to those Uranium stockpiles that we know of

3) Iran sits on one of the largest oil reserves in the world. Why the hell do they need Uranium and nuclear facilities to begin with?



And if you really believe that Iran isn't actively trying to attain nuclear weapons, then why is this deal even necessary in the first place? If Iran was just building civilian nuclear reactors, with no malicious intent, wouldn't you agree that any arms control deal is a moot point?
So are back to making up facts again - Read this line

Quote:
Despite this progress, we assess Iran could not divert safeguarded material and produce a
weapon-worth of WGU before this activity is discovered.
Now reread what you wrote and explain to me how we aren't walking in circles and how you're not wasting both of our time with this nonsense.
Appreciate 0
      05-05-2015, 12:21 PM   #125
Dalko43
Captain
168
Rep
894
Posts

Drives: 2011 Toyota 4Runner Trail
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Upstate NY

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheAxiom View Post
So are back to making up facts again - Read this line


Now reread what you wrote and explain to me how we aren't walking in circles and how you're not wasting both of our time with this nonsense.
All that assessment is saying is that the intel community would likely have some forewarning before Iran completed construction of a nuclear weapon.

What's your point?

And how does it negate any of what I posted previously?
__________________
Current: 2011 Toyota 4Runner Trail
Sold: 2013 BMW 335is Coupe
Appreciate 0
      05-05-2015, 12:48 PM   #126
Taskmaster
Banned
Japan
2331
Rep
9,157
Posts

Drives: M235i 6MT / E92 328 Msport 6MT
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: Florida

iTrader: (6)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dalko43 View Post
All that assessment is saying is that the intel community would likely have some forewarning before Iran completed construction of a nuclear weapon.

What's your point?

And how does it negate any of what I posted previously?
Because 'what' you posted was a poorly thought assumption that isn't supported by the intelligence information already gathered.

Last edited by Taskmaster; 05-05-2015 at 02:25 PM..
Appreciate 0
      05-05-2015, 12:52 PM   #127
Dalko43
Captain
168
Rep
894
Posts

Drives: 2011 Toyota 4Runner Trail
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Upstate NY

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheAxiom View Post
Because you posted was a poorly thought assumption that isn't supported with that was posted.
You want to try that again? I don't speak dyslexic.

And why is the US government pushing for a weapons control treaty with Iran? I thought Iran wasn't actively seeking nuclear weapons??
__________________
Current: 2011 Toyota 4Runner Trail
Sold: 2013 BMW 335is Coupe
Appreciate 0
      05-05-2015, 12:54 PM   #128
Taskmaster
Banned
Japan
2331
Rep
9,157
Posts

Drives: M235i 6MT / E92 328 Msport 6MT
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: Florida

iTrader: (6)

Edited*
Appreciate 0
      05-05-2015, 01:06 PM   #129
Taskmaster
Banned
Japan
2331
Rep
9,157
Posts

Drives: M235i 6MT / E92 328 Msport 6MT
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: Florida

iTrader: (6)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dalko43 View Post
You want to try that again? I don't speak dyslexic.

And why is the US government pushing for a weapons control treaty with Iran? I thought Iran wasn't actively seeking nuclear weapons??
Assumption, again.
Like I said, you're a waste of time.
Appreciate 0
      05-05-2015, 02:05 PM   #130
Dalko43
Captain
168
Rep
894
Posts

Drives: 2011 Toyota 4Runner Trail
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Upstate NY

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheAxiom View Post
Assumption, again.
Like I said, you're a waste of time.
What am I assuming? This whole deal that you and I keep arguing about is a deal to prohibit Iran's access to nuclear weapons.

That's been stated ad nauseam in the media and the documents that have been produced so far from these negotiations.
__________________
Current: 2011 Toyota 4Runner Trail
Sold: 2013 BMW 335is Coupe

Last edited by Dalko43; 05-05-2015 at 02:16 PM..
Appreciate 0
      05-05-2015, 02:06 PM   #131
Dalko43
Captain
168
Rep
894
Posts

Drives: 2011 Toyota 4Runner Trail
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Upstate NY

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheAxiom View Post
Edited*
Still doesn't make sense..
__________________
Current: 2011 Toyota 4Runner Trail
Sold: 2013 BMW 335is Coupe
Appreciate 0
      05-05-2015, 02:26 PM   #132
Taskmaster
Banned
Japan
2331
Rep
9,157
Posts

Drives: M235i 6MT / E92 328 Msport 6MT
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: Florida

iTrader: (6)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dalko43 View Post
What am I assuming? This whole deal that you and I keep arguing about is a deal to prohibit Iran's access to nuclear weapons.

That's been stated ad nauseam in the media and the documents that have been produced so far from these negotiations.
And what are you arguing - that Iran is/could be persuing them, possibly in secrect, when NO INTELLIGENCE EVEN SUGGESTS THAT? Do you understand why I'm being dismissive?
Appreciate 0
Post Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 02:04 PM.




bmw
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, vBulletin Solutions Inc.
1Addicts.com, BIMMERPOST.com, E90Post.com, F30Post.com, M3Post.com, ZPost.com, 5Post.com, 6Post.com, 7Post.com, XBimmers.com logo and trademark are properties of BIMMERPOST