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      03-02-2018, 04:01 PM   #353
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AND a standardized way to meter the charging so that it can be sale-able. That's easily figured out. What's not is the standardization of charging load, optimization, and repeatability from site to site across a country that has severe (and that's putting it mildly) infrastructure issues in its electrical grid as it is.
Gas prices are not standardized across the country, why should it be for an EV? Prices will be determined by the market: supply and demand. The electrical grid will be the new highways of transportation of energy, much like the physical highways that contain tanker trucks of fuel that deliver gasoline to all parts of the country. The increasing use of on-site solar panels instead of farms, will lead to less dependence to the regional grids.


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China, as many of us know, is moving to electrify its vehicles at as fast a pace as any country. That country faces many of the same issues that the U.S. does, such as use-able range and consumer cost, while dealing with much worse infrastructure inequalities, particularly in rural areas between cities old and new. Thing is, China has the capital to invest in this infrastructure to make it happen quickly. The U.S. doesn't -- heck, it's $20 trillion in debt.

That last fact is a big reason why I personally don't believe EVs will be a majority in the U.S. for at least the next generation, if not longer if fossil fuel or ICE-fuel alternatives hold out. It'll work for city dwellers. It'll work for most trucking companies. It'll work for those with per-capita income above the U.S.' median. It'll work for most of the white-collar work force. It won't work for much of the remainder.
FOR NOW. The same thing could have been said about the automobile when it first arrived.
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      03-02-2018, 04:35 PM   #354
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I think the infrastructure will be dependent on where you live in the world. In Europe there are rapid charge stations being built and in china their are incentives for the same. The us may still for the moment be a mix charge infrastructure.


This is not a one shoe fits all structure.


I’m not sure where the commentary around income plays through?... EV’s on a fully loaded operating cost is comparable on a monthly basis based on a $200/kwh battery. It’s just that the sales price is higher but once you load on operating costs, ev’s and ice’s are nearly the same cost of ownership
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      03-02-2018, 05:13 PM   #355
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What's wrong with Tesla management? They generate no free cash flow or profit. Meanwhile their market cap is an unjustified $51 billion. They delivered 76 thousand vehicles in 2016. In contrast a company like Ford generated nearly $13 Billion in free cash flow and a net profit of almost $5 billion. In 2016 they delivered 6 MILLION vehicles. Their market cap? $45 billion. Tesla is worth more than Ford? Something is wrong here.

How can they do better? See above. Also perhaps they should prove they have a viable product that can sustain sales without government incentives.
If you scaled down Ford's numbers to just that of their EV volume, what would that look like?
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      03-02-2018, 05:13 PM   #356
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Gas prices are not standardized across the country, why should it be for an EV?
I'm not talking price. I'm talking a standardized way to measure so that it can be priced consistently -- i.e., calibration.

To wit: Electric companies use a plethora of meters to measure kilowatt hours in a home, from old-school electromagnetic 'disc' meters to modern, Wifi-enabled smart meters. They can do that because meters are effectively not standardized; electric companies are private and numerous; different agencies often install, monitor, and read the meters; and a meter that's not reading properly (or that is having electricity siphoned off illegally) often takes months to discover.

Electricity delivery independent of a home meter won't work that way. Federal standards will need to be established once a tipping point is reached.
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      03-02-2018, 05:19 PM   #357
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Originally Posted by Bt12 View Post
I’m not sure where the commentary around income plays through?... EV’s on a fully loaded operating cost is comparable on a monthly basis based on a $200/kwh battery. It’s just that the sales price is higher but once you load on operating costs, ev’s and ice’s are nearly the same cost of ownership
It's not that simple. What use does a farmer have for an EV? Or a rancher? Or a construction worker? A contractor? Or a single mother of three who works multiple jobs to keep her kids fed and out of trouble?

The problem is also socioeconomic. Please tell me how a janitor who drives a 10-year-old Dodge Ram pickup to work is going to find a way to have an EV. There are tens of millions of these salt-of-the-earth people in our country, and most have absolutely no use or desire for an EV -- in fact, owning one would be a significant hindrance until the EV's practical viability is comparable to an ICE in nearly all measures.
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      03-02-2018, 07:08 PM   #358
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Originally Posted by Viffermike View Post
It's not that simple. What use does a farmer have for an EV? Or a rancher? Or a construction worker? A contractor? Or a single mother of three who works multiple jobs to keep her kids fed and out of trouble?

The problem is also socioeconomic. Please tell me how a janitor who drives a 10-year-old Dodge Ram pickup to work is going to find a way to have an EV. There are tens of millions of these salt-of-the-earth people in our country, and most have absolutely no use or desire for an EV -- in fact, owning one would be a significant hindrance until the EV's practical viability is comparable to an ICE in nearly all measures.
I'm gas free for about 5 years now
I have not had to deal with any ICE related stuff for this long and i absolutely love it!
I love the fact that i'm not spending hours at the gas stations annually.
I love the fact that i can keep my car running while it's inside of my garage with the baby asleep.
I love that i do not spend any $$ to operate my car.
I love to take it on road trips (autopilot, space and cost is amaizing)

P.S. Someone mentioned that the only fun thing about tesla is 0-60. Go drive one
It handles and accelerates a lot better than comparable car, while being extremely comfortable
BMWs are not the same anymore
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      03-02-2018, 07:45 PM   #359
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Viffermike View Post
It's not that simple. What use does a farmer have for an EV? Or a rancher? Or a construction worker? A contractor? Or a single mother of three who works multiple jobs to keep her kids fed and out of trouble?

The problem is also socioeconomic. Please tell me how a janitor who drives a 10-year-old Dodge Ram pickup to work is going to find a way to have an EV. There are tens of millions of these salt-of-the-earth people in our country, and most have absolutely no use or desire for an EV -- in fact, owning one would be a significant hindrance until the EV's practical viability is comparable to an ICE in nearly all measures.
I'm gas free for about 5 years now
I have not had to deal with any ICE related stuff for this long and i absolutely love it!
I love the fact that i'm not spending hours at the gas stations annually.
I love the fact that i can keep my car running while it's inside of my garage with the baby asleep.
I love that i do not spend any $$ to operate my car.
I love to take it on road trips (autopilot, space and cost is amaizing)

P.S. Someone mentioned that the only fun thing about tesla is 0-60. Go drive one
It handles and accelerates a lot better than comparable car, while being extremely comfortable
BMWs are not the same anymore
Great! Now: What do you do for a living, and how much do you make a year?

Yeah. Thought so. You, sir, are driving a nearly six-figure EV. Please don't insult the collective intelligence of this forum and compare yourself to, say, that mother I mentioned earlier.

(Oh, and I've driven a Tesla. Several, in fact, including a first-gen Roadster. Handling is OK; most of that benefit is the low CoG. Thanks, but I'll keep my Porsche and bank on Mission E.)
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      03-02-2018, 07:47 PM   #360
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Yeah, why in the world would you need them at even 10% of the gas stations? Put them on interstates and that should cover it. With home charging and a 300 mile range, I would not have used a gas station in the last five years.
Our friend has a Tesla S (he is a fan), yet he has a lead foot too. With his style of driving 300 miles only last for 150 real miles. Basically if he wants to go someplace that is more than 75 miles he needs to plan his trip and charge to get back home. Not fun. Or - drive slower - then he gets home just fine, but ..... driving slow is not fun either. No matter how you put it - it's not for everyone. If you take current population of drivers - maybe 25% can theoretically benefit using Tesla (in reality it will be much less than that). And that is financial issues aside
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      03-02-2018, 07:59 PM   #361
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Yeah, why in the world would you need them at even 10% of the gas stations? Put them on interstates and that should cover it. With home charging and a 300 mile range, I would not have used a gas station in the last five years.
Our friend has a Tesla S (he is a fan), yet he has a lead foot too. With his style of driving 300 miles only last for 150 real miles. Basically if he wants to go someplace that is more than 75 miles he needs to plan his trip and charge to get back home. Not fun. Or - drive slower - then he gets home just fine, but ..... driving slow is not fun either. No matter how you put it - it's not for everyone. If you take current population of drivers - maybe 25% can theoretically benefit using Tesla (in reality it will be much less than that). And that is financial issues aside
But how often is he more than 75 miles from home? These assumptions always presume that you've only got one car or only EV's. I can't think of the last time I've been more than 40 miles from my home without a plan where I could have easily taken our other car. In reality, I could make an i3 work without any real compromises. Give it 4x the range of the original BEV and I can't really think more than 1% if the population couldn't make that work as a daily driver, especially if they have an ICE or hybrid as a second or third car.
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      03-02-2018, 09:06 PM   #362
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Originally Posted by m34m View Post
What's wrong with Tesla management? They generate no free cash flow or profit. Meanwhile their market cap is an unjustified $51 billion. They delivered 76 thousand vehicles in 2016. In contrast a company like Ford generated nearly $13 Billion in free cash flow and a net profit of almost $5 billion. In 2016 they delivered 6 MILLION vehicles. Their market cap? $45 billion. Tesla is worth more than Ford? Something is wrong here.

How can they do better? See above. Also perhaps they should prove they have a viable product that can sustain sales without government incentives.
If you scaled down Ford's numbers to just that of their EV volume, what would that look like?
I'm not sure how to answer that hypothetical. Ford is a company with a diversified portfolio of products serving numerous market segments. Therefore they are profitable. Tesla isn't.
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      03-02-2018, 09:28 PM   #363
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I'm not sure how to answer that hypothetical. Ford is a company with a diversified portfolio of products serving numerous market segments. Therefore they are profitable. Tesla isn't.
That's somewhat of the subtext to which I was referring.

I'd speculate that Ford's profitability isn't coming from (or being enhanced by) the EV market - I.E. If Ford (or any other OEM) was EV-only, profitability measures may have to have a different standard of comparison.

Is there another EV-only manufacturer to which to compare?
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      03-02-2018, 10:45 PM   #364
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I'm not sure how to answer that hypothetical. Ford is a company with a diversified portfolio of products serving numerous market segments. Therefore they are profitable. Tesla isn't.
That's somewhat of the subtext to which I was referring.

I'd speculate that Ford's profitability isn't coming from (or being enhanced by) the EV market - I.E. If Ford (or any other OEM) was EV-only, profitability measures may have to have a different standard of comparison.

Is there another EV-only manufacturer to which to compare?
Maybe the better question is whether an EV only business model makes sense? Tesla's model requires government subsidies and has proven to be unsustainable on its own. Are you suggesting the major OEM's follow this path?
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      03-02-2018, 11:00 PM   #365
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EV deniers are almost as bad as flat earthers.

I love me some IC engine just as much as the next gearhead but I have no question where the common automobile is headed.
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      03-02-2018, 11:10 PM   #366
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EV deniers are almost as bad as flat earthers.

I love me some IC engine just as much as the next gearhead but I have no question where the common automobile is headed.
Who's denying it? The business model simply doesn't work at present. Eventually it may but it's doubtful Tesla will be the company that achieves it. Certainly not in its current form. Opposing viewpoints don't denote ignorance or denial. Interestingly labeling and shouting down differing voices is a very socialist trait. Hmmmmm
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      03-03-2018, 01:16 AM   #367
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Originally Posted by Viffermike View Post
It's not that simple. What use does a farmer have for an EV? Or a rancher? Or a construction worker? A contractor? Or a single mother of three who works multiple jobs to keep her kids fed and out of trouble?

The problem is also socioeconomic. Please tell me how a janitor who drives a 10-year-old Dodge Ram pickup to work is going to find a way to have an EV. There are tens of millions of these salt-of-the-earth people in our country, and most have absolutely no use or desire for an EV -- in fact, owning one would be a significant hindrance until the EV's practical viability is comparable to an ICE in nearly all measures.
Well, farmers are using electrically-powered drones now for ag spraying and crop inspection, so the march is proceeding and inevitable IMO. A janitor? Well if he is in the market for a new vehicle, hopefully he'll buy what makes economical sense. Economy of scale is bringing the EV down to this level, although it's not there yet. Contractor that needs to haul a bunch of tools and stuff? Same basic idea, economy of scale and no specialized vehicles yet, but plenty of tools have transitioned over to electric, so the path seems pretty clear. Contractors for the most part are just going to work locations and taking their tools, so once a platform makes sense, that will probably make sense for those that are reaching the end of their current vehicle's useful life.
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      03-03-2018, 01:28 AM   #368
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Many folks here are too optimistic. EV seem to be the future, but it's not guaranteed. At the current level of technology we can't sustain even 5% of population to have EVs. There's systemic issues in the country, not to mention the rest of the world. With exception of handful of countries 95% of world will never be able to go full EV in our lifetime (and I'm been optimistic). There's huge issues with battery production, rare earth element shortage, electric grid inability to sustain current state of affairs even without any EVs charged at homes or anywhere else. Solar panels need rare earth elements too (surprise) and it's a viscous cycle. Political issues, unresolved and not even close to be solved. There's tons of things to be fixed. At this point all we are looking at - hybrids ladies and gentlemen. Forget about EVs for mass market. Hybrids are the near future. Like for next 25-35 years
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      03-03-2018, 06:27 AM   #369
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Viffermike View Post
It's not that simple. What use does a farmer have for an EV? Or a rancher? Or a construction worker? A contractor? Or a single mother of three who works multiple jobs to keep her kids fed and out of trouble?

The problem is also socioeconomic. Please tell me how a janitor who drives a 10-year-old Dodge Ram pickup to work is going to find a way to have an EV. There are tens of millions of these salt-of-the-earth people in our country, and most have absolutely no use or desire for an EV -- in fact, owning one would be a significant hindrance until the EV's practical viability is comparable to an ICE in nearly all measures.

I think what you are referring to is the car stock that will still be around. Penetration conversations are focused on car units Sold. Vs what’s in the system. I think when most talk about ev’s Taking over... full penetration is near middle of this century. That said the car stock will be around.

In your example...that portion of the population will be able to still either buy used ice engines OR the cost of EV’s will be low enogih.

One of the things I think people miss when they do the ice vs ev analysis is they hold ICE prices flat and not inflate the price while keeping the ice price flat and not deflate it. Remember the same ev technology used in auto will lightweight vehicles and be used for aero taxi’s as well.


That said... unemployment rate in US is 4%... trump is supposedly helping the salt of the earth people. Depreciating the dollar and implementing tariff’s... I’m not firm this helps but if t does. Blue collar workers should see further tailwind.


10 years everyone will be able to buy a ev cheaper.


Btw... farmer - ag cycle is at the bottom of the cycle and there are grain subsidies. I know farmers that minted money in the late 2000’s. They were buying $500k combines and such.

Construction worker- they are crushing it-case Schiller goes up 5% annually, inventory is low and labor is really tight in this segment. The export of illegal workers likely tighten thisgroup even more.

Single mother- I feel for this the most...but there are social programs to help support this family, there is or should be.

Last edited by Bt12; 03-03-2018 at 06:34 AM..
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      03-03-2018, 08:28 AM   #370
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Originally Posted by Viffermike View Post
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Originally Posted by AndreyATC View Post
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Originally Posted by Viffermike View Post
It's not that simple. What use does a farmer have for an EV? Or a rancher? Or a construction worker? A contractor? Or a single mother of three who works multiple jobs to keep her kids fed and out of trouble?

The problem is also socioeconomic. Please tell me how a janitor who drives a 10-year-old Dodge Ram pickup to work is going to find a way to have an EV. There are tens of millions of these salt-of-the-earth people in our country, and most have absolutely no use or desire for an EV -- in fact, owning one would be a significant hindrance until the EV's practical viability is comparable to an ICE in nearly all measures.
I'm gas free for about 5 years now
I have not had to deal with any ICE related stuff for this long and i absolutely love it!
I love the fact that i'm not spending hours at the gas stations annually.
I love the fact that i can keep my car running while it's inside of my garage with the baby asleep.
I love that i do not spend any $$ to operate my car.
I love to take it on road trips (autopilot, space and cost is amaizing)

P.S. Someone mentioned that the only fun thing about tesla is 0-60. Go drive one
It handles and accelerates a lot better than comparable car, while being extremely comfortable
BMWs are not the same anymore
Great! Now: What do you do for a living, and how much do you make a year?

Yeah. Thought so. You, sir, are driving a nearly six-figure EV. Please don't insult the collective intelligence of this forum and compare yourself to, say, that mother I mentioned earlier.

(Oh, and I've driven a Tesla. Several, in fact, including a first-gen Roadster. Handling is OK; most of that benefit is the low CoG. Thanks, but I'll keep my Porsche and bank on Mission E.)
Definitely not trying to insult anyone here.
In fact, not sure how it would be possible when ppl talking about Porsche and others on BMW forums
:
I'm not a high-income household. Just an average American with a single car.
Owning Tesla is actually cheaper for me than any large German SUVs. It was another reason I purchased it, besides other benefits
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      03-03-2018, 11:09 AM   #371
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Originally Posted by Bt12 View Post
I’m not sure where the commentary around income plays through?... EV’s on a fully loaded operating cost is comparable on a monthly basis based on a $200/kwh battery. It’s just that the sales price is higher but once you load on operating costs, ev’s and ice’s are nearly the same cost of ownership
It's not that simple. What use does a farmer have for an EV? Or a rancher? Or a construction worker? A contractor? Or a single mother of three who works multiple jobs to keep her kids fed and out of trouble?

The problem is also socioeconomic. Please tell me how a janitor who drives a 10-year-old Dodge Ram pickup to work is going to find a way to have an EV. There are tens of millions of these salt-of-the-earth people in our country, and most have absolutely no use or desire for an EV -- in fact, owning one would be a significant hindrance until the EV's practical viability is comparable to an ICE in nearly all measures.
They said the same thing about a color television.
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      03-03-2018, 01:34 PM   #372
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Maybe the better question is whether an EV only business model makes sense? Tesla's model requires government subsidies and has proven to be unsustainable on its own. Are you suggesting the major OEM's follow this path?
I think you hit the nail on the head.

I'm not certain the EV market has matured enough to be a financially successful standalone business model; for now, it seems better placed as a developmental hedge for a traditional vehicle manufacturing operation.

Also, Tesla's market cap being higher than Ford isn't a true measure of either company's net worth; it's simply a function of stock price * number of outstanding shares - I.E. Ford's simply been better at buying back stock/limiting its dependency on outside investor funds. Positive cash flow tends to have that effect.
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      03-03-2018, 11:16 PM   #373
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Originally Posted by Obioban View Post
Tesla isn't just currently creating cars-- they're building the entire infrastructure to support EV production (namely batteries). Once that's up and running, their position should be quite strong-- supplying batteries to most of their competitions, homes, etc.

They're basically creating a new industry on the back of model S profits and investors. So, yeah, shouldn't be too surprising that they're not currently profitable. Once this phase is complete, they'll be in a very different profit situation-- which is why people are investing in them.

Nor should it be surprising to anyone with the most basic understanding of supply and demand that sales go down as the tax incentives go away.
This. I think in 10 years they will produce one supercar and sell batteries to others.
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      03-04-2018, 06:25 AM   #374
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The dangerous riddle that is Tesla’s Elon*Musk

Motor Mouth: From the National Post

Billionaire automaker's futuristic vision is compromised by his filmflam hucksterism
 by* DAVID BOOTH *


To fully appreciate Elon Musk, one must be comfortable with contradiction. The most polarizing executive perhaps in the history of the automobile, Elon Musk embodies every bit the brilliance of Charles Kettering, the man who fairly fairly modernized the passenger car (inventing both starter motor and the high-compression engine, among other patents). There would be no electric cars had Mr. Musk not taken over Tesla in 2008. He’s also reimagined the tunnel-boring industry, and to watch the Falcon Heavy’s booster rockets return so delicately to Earth is to appreciate genius.
Unfortunately, said ingenuity is accompanied by a healthy dose of Bernie Madoff hucksterism, Mr. Musk the embodiment of the artist seemingly incapable of resisting the flimflam even when it’s not in his best interests. After all, what is a Ponzi scheme if not the willingness to finance current returns, er, products, with the deposits from future investors/customers? And, by Bloomberg’s reckoning, Tesla has accumulated almost US$900-million in Model 3, Truck and Roadster deposits, all made on products promised long in the future to satisfy the cash being burned building today’s cars.

Said cash being burned is prodigious. Again, according to Bloomberg, Tesla has been ripping through US$8,000 a minute — that’s half a million U.S. greenbacks an hour — for the last 12 months. Barclays Bank estimates the company will consume $4.2 billion this year alone, and Jeffrey Osborne, a research analyst covering the alternative energy sector, estimates Tesla’s capital expenditure will be in the region of $20 billion to $25 billion between 2017 and 2020. This, on top of the $10+ billion the company has gone through since Mr. Musk took control 10 years ago.

But, for those Tesla fans unconcerned about such fiscal profligacy, here is the one number that worries rational analysts perhaps even more. In a recent study that was to determine how many prospective Tesla owners would cancel their Model 3 deposits as a result of Tesla’s much publicized production delays (incredibly, 12 per cent said that “when I get the car is irrelevant, I’ll wait as long as I need to.”)*autolist.com also found that a whopping 26.5 per cent of those awaiting their new cars said that “build quality is irrelevant” in their decision to buy a Model 3.

Think about that for a minute. An automobile is the second-most expensive consumer item most people will ever purchase. Legion are the stories of automakers ruined by poor build quality. An entire branch of automotive engineering was developed to solve the problem of build quality on production lines. Hell, there are companies — J.D. Power, Consumer Reports, among others — that were created in the quest to satisfy consumer demand for perfectly reliable automobiles. Yet — and perhaps this is where we should start referencing Jim Jones and his infamous Kool-Aid — fully a quarter of prospective Model 3 owners don’t give a fig if their new car is built like a 1990s-era Kia.

Which, funny that I should mention it, seems that it is. A recent report by Munro and Associates — a Detroit-area*consultancy that reverse-engineers automobiles by tearing them apart — concluded that Tesla’s new Model 3 is built, well, “like a ’90s Kia.” According to Sandy Munro, the company’s CEO, the Model 3 they dissected had doors that were difficult to open, panel gaps that were inconsistent and, in one extreme case, there was an extra piece of glued-on sealing material on the driver’s side window frame. “This is an afterthought or something…You’re not supposed to just glue on another piece,” Munro told Autoline’s John McElroy. “I can’t imagine how they released this.”

Thus the frustration with the Musk empire. On one hand, you have two enormously powerful booster rockets returning to Earth — OK, Florida — with a grace that would make Rudolf Nureyev envious: On the other, a flimsy piece of rubber is slapped onto a Model’s 3’s door frame like a 10-year-old building a soapbox racer in the back yard. Owners, on the one hand, purport the absolute, incontrovertible, absolutely scientific need for their cars’ zero emissions, then snap up any useless, Musk-branded gadget — seriously, flame-throwers? — like Taylor Swift fangirls clamouring just to touch her dress.

As to why all this sudden concern about Mr. Musk’s motivations, the company recently made public his proposed pay package. Largely based on stock market performance, Mr. Musk’s compensation could reach US$55-billion if Tesla’s market cap reaches US$650-billion by 2028. For a little perspective, that is roughly, according to The Economist, “the current value of the world’s 10 largest carmakers combined,” which produce in the region of about 60 million cars a year. In case you’re wondering, Tesla managed to pump out 101,312 Model Ss and Xs last year.
Whatever your take on electric vehicles — or tunnel digging devices, for that matter — this is why one is never quite sure whether to cheer Mr. Musk’s brazenness or lament the rabbit hole he may be leading us down. Is he a visionary or Ponzi artist? Will Tesla indeed rule the automotive world or are we about to see a bust — as soon as this year, say some analysts — that will make the Nortel fiasco seem like a broken piggy bank?

Perhaps The Economist, in its recent exposé of the Musk empire, summed it up best when quoting the head of one of the world’s largest energy equity funds. “The world needs Elon Musk,” said the alternative energy expert, lauding his ability to drive clean technologies and reinvent business models, just before — in the very next breath, says The Economist — admonishing one and all to “short Tesla.” That is Elon Musk in a nutshell, Winston Churchill’s proverbial riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.
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