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      10-25-2020, 09:21 AM   #1
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Autonomous vehicle technology

Maybe we can make this a discussion of the technology and progress towards self-driving and assisted-driving tech? Here is a link to a recent video of a driver using Tesla's "full self-driving" (FSD) beta. What do you think about it and the future of this tech/software?

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      10-25-2020, 12:57 PM   #2
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Been very, very bearish about this since day 1. I have always maintained that for it to work, drivers need to be banned so the cars can all communicate. This idea that Level 4 is acceptable or Level 5 with a mix of Ai and real drivers on the road will work is hogwash. It's astoundingly difficult and some of the world's largest companies have walked away from it in recent years basically saying "this is just too fucking hard".

5 years ago I said 25 years before this works, and i stand by it.
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      10-25-2020, 01:05 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by antzcrashing View Post
Maybe we can make this a discussion of the technology and progress towards self-driving and assisted-driving tech? Here is a link to a recent video of a driver using Tesla's "full self-driving" (FSD) beta. What do you think about it and the future of this tech/software?
My friend who is a huge tesla fanboi sent me this video. I have seen a million of these self driving tesla videos but have yet to see an actual FSD tesla even though Elon proclaims every year that it's coming that year. So I was not surprised that a whopping like 2 minutes into the video they had to intervene.

I think autopilot is amazing. It is the best adaptive cruise/lane keep assist on the market and I use it pretty much every time we go on a long drive. That being said I don't find it as impressive when you consider my $1k comma.ai device which runs off a pretty shitty smart phone can do almost everything autopilot does and IMO does many things better.

However unless I can take a nap in the back of the car I do not consider it FSD and I don't see that happening anytime soon regardless of what Elon may claim.
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      10-25-2020, 02:07 PM   #4
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We should be looking at other players such as Waymo or Cruise Automation (who work with GM). They already test with no human drivers behind the wheel. They also made a conscious decision to skip Level 3 and go directly to Level 4 because human driver's get dependent on the machine, and don't intervene when needed.

I think those players are a lot closer to full Autonomous driving than Tesla. Why? Because Elon decided that Lidar is not needed. Only cameras. Since that's how humans do it, just visual. And that's great, if you have completely mapped and re-created the part of the human mind responsible for spatial reasoning, orientation, reflexes and decision making base on positioning and relative approach velocities. But we are nowhere close. Machines will need more inputs to recreate human decisions, or to even perceive in a similar way to us. So I think use of Lidar is required today to be autonomous. Waymo, Cruise and Ford have all decided to use Lidar, so they have a shot. In my opinion using camera only is a no-go for full automation in the next 25 years.

If all vehicles are equipped with short range transponders which can indicate relative positions to each other, as well as velocities and angles of approach (or at least enough data so that those can be calculated in near rear time), we can get away from Lidar. But we're nowhere near that today, or in the next decade.

The next step for existing players with array of sensing in place is to teach AI to start taking calculated risks, like human drivers do every day. If a machine is programmed to only make a left turn when it's clear, those cars will never move during rush hour. I think this is the next challenge for AI divers
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      10-25-2020, 03:11 PM   #5
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      10-25-2020, 03:26 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alfisti View Post
Been very, very bearish about this since day 1. I have always maintained that for it to work, drivers need to be banned so the cars can all communicate. This idea that Level 4 is acceptable or Level 5 with a mix of Ai and real drivers on the road will work is hogwash. It's astoundingly difficult and some of the world's largest companies have walked away from it in recent years basically saying "this is just too fucking hard".

5 years ago I said 25 years before this works, and i stand by it.
The Legal impacts and Governmental regulation have not yet been addressed. The US Government, as most other Western countries governments, regulate EVERYTHING regarding private transportation, from the design, manufacturing and recycling of automobiles, down to the reflectivity specifications of paint used to mark roads. So to think the US Government is going to let private companies develop and operate an automation system for private automobiles is being ignorant of the realties involved. To think personal injury lawyers are not going to impact the implementation of autonomous driving is equivalent to thinking the sun doesn't cause climate change.

While the autonomous technology is extremely difficult to develop and implement, the legal and governmental challenges are the most difficult issues to overcome, and they are not even yet fully known. These issues will take decades to resolve. Mixing humans with self-driving machines will further increase the time and cost of adoption.

Some engineering exercises are not worth the pursuit. How about we just make people more responsible for operating their automobiles. Real simple.
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      10-25-2020, 04:33 PM   #7
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Some engineering exercises are not worth the pursuit. How about we just make people more responsible for operating their automobiles. Real simple.
This assumes self driving tech is being developed because people are shit drivers. I'm not sure that is the main reason for developing the tech. Also if you have the ability to "make people more responsible" then why are you even on this forum? I mean... I can't imagine I would have much time to post here if I was on my mega yacht full of hookers and blow.
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      10-25-2020, 05:10 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by dreamingat30fps View Post
This assumes self driving tech is being developed because people are shit drivers. I'm not sure that is the main reason for developing the tech. Also if you have the ability to "make people more responsible" then why are you even on this forum? I mean... I can't imagine I would have much time to post here if I was on my mega yacht full of hookers and blow.
^ This.

Making people more responsible is not easy. They won't stop drinking and driving, they won't stop checking the phone, they won't stop eating or doing the makeup. Most crashes world wide are single vehicle accidents. Going off the road and hitting something. This is where Autonomous tech will help most.
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      10-25-2020, 05:27 PM   #9
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That's fine, but it DOES NOT WORK and it is not even close to working. We either mandate drivers off the road or we wait 20 years because right now it is a massive fail.
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      10-25-2020, 10:07 PM   #10
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Originally Posted by 5.M0NSTER View Post
^ This.

Making people more responsible is not easy. They won't stop drinking and driving, they won't stop checking the phone, they won't stop eating or doing the makeup. Most crashes world wide are single vehicle accidents. Going off the road and hitting something. This is where Autonomous tech will help most.
Yeah it is. Just make the fines a lot higher and way easier to lose one's license. For the people who just lack the skill there is Uber, cabs, and public transportation.
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      10-25-2020, 11:10 PM   #11
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Yeah it is. Just make the fines a lot higher and way easier to lose one's license. For the people who just lack the skill there is Uber, cabs, and public transportation.
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      10-26-2020, 08:25 AM   #12
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Yeah it is. Just make the fines a lot higher and way easier to lose one's license. For the people who just lack the skill there is Uber, cabs, and public transportation.
It doesn't work TBH. AUstralia is SAVAGE with speeding in particular as well as drink driving. Every cop has a breathaliser in the car and can test you at any time for no reason and we catch a LOT of people, but people still do it. The fines are enormous too, and for speeding the fines are insanely high with virtually zero tolerance and there are speed cameras EVERYWHERE ... yet people speed.
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      10-26-2020, 11:40 AM   #13
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It doesn't work TBH. AUstralia is SAVAGE with speeding in particular as well as drink driving. Every cop has a breathaliser in the car and can test you at any time for no reason and we catch a LOT of people, but people still do it. The fines are enormous too, and for speeding the fines are insanely high with virtually zero tolerance and there are speed cameras EVERYWHERE ... yet people speed.
Yeah, it's inherently flawed to think that punishment/fines will prevent people from doing stuff. If they think they can get away with it, they will try. There are also plenty of people that will act irrationally when they go through their "decision process" to speed/drink, etc. The problem is we keep trying to apply rational thoughts to this: "well, if I do this, it could result in that". So what is the solution, 1 highway patrol/trooper for every 10 people? It'll never work.
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      10-26-2020, 11:55 AM   #14
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A typical bald eagle, gun carrying, evil oppressive government type of American would have a fit if they ever stepped foot in Australia re. the speed cameras, heavy police presence and no questions asked breathalyzer tests.
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      10-26-2020, 12:02 PM   #15
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A typical bald eagle, gun carrying, evil oppressive government type of American would have a fit if they ever stepped foot in Australia re. the speed cameras, heavy police presence and no questions asked breathalyzer tests.
Everyone has different tolerances for rules and regulations and enforcement of such. Australia has taken it too far now that they've banned hentai...

Automatic safety features are a good thing. I have zero interest in full self-driving, though. The person behind the wheel of a death machine should never be given any reason to think that their full attention is not required at all times. "Bad drivers" should not be in the driver's seat, whether they are doing any driving or not. Computers can outperform humans in many areas, but they will never be able to read or react to certain situations like we can.

I think driverless taxis and similar could be seen in the not too distant future, but limited to specific routes and low speeds.
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      10-26-2020, 12:11 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesNoBrakes View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alfisti View Post
It doesn't work TBH. AUstralia is SAVAGE with speeding in particular as well as drink driving. Every cop has a breathaliser in the car and can test you at any time for no reason and we catch a LOT of people, but people still do it. The fines are enormous too, and for speeding the fines are insanely high with virtually zero tolerance and there are speed cameras EVERYWHERE ... yet people speed.
Yeah, it's inherently flawed to think that punishment/fines will prevent people from doing stuff. If they think they can get away with it, they will try. There are also plenty of people that will act irrationally when they go through their "decision process" to speed/drink, etc. The problem is we keep trying to apply rational thoughts to this: "well, if I do this, it could result in that". So what is the solution, 1 highway patrol/trooper for every 10 people? It'll never work.
On the contrary, in Europe where the DUI penalties are very high, many people do not touch car keys after a single beer. It makes a difference. Granted they also have better public transit.

However, I stop short of saying that excessive fines prevent all bad behavior. Some bad apples are going to push the envelope no matter what.

The tesla FSD beta has clearly been given to a very select group of users - likely even with NDAs and no-sue waivers. The leap from this group to a general Tesla-owner group will be a big leap. If anyone can pull this off it is Tesla, but it wont be easy it wont be quiet.
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      10-26-2020, 12:30 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alfisti View Post
It doesn't work TBH. AUstralia is SAVAGE with speeding in particular as well as drink driving. Every cop has a breathaliser in the car and can test you at any time for no reason and we catch a LOT of people, but people still do it. The fines are enormous too, and for speeding the fines are insanely high with virtually zero tolerance and there are speed cameras EVERYWHERE ... yet people speed.
Yeah, we've all see Mad Max.
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      10-26-2020, 12:32 PM   #18
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Thinking computers can drive cars without hitting each other is well, laughable.
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      10-26-2020, 12:35 PM   #19
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FSD could work on a fixed express lane where every driver relinquish all control and let their vehicles follow a central command. People are unpredictable. I don't think you can program an AI to respond to all the scenarios of how all human behave. Google autonomous vehicles have been hit and it can only go 25MPH. We're still a long way and several regulations to go. However, driving is 75% of the fun of getting there. This is why most of us chose a BMW. What would the new slogan be, the Ultimate Self Driving Machine?
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      10-26-2020, 12:53 PM   #20
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Just like the electrification of cars, it's the future.

The better cars get at seeing each other and the more cars that have better vision, the more quickly this will be normalized.

Tesla is obviously the vanguard here, but the other big names will eventually follow. We're probably 10-15 years out from significantly widespread implementation, but it's coming.
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      10-26-2020, 01:18 PM   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Soterios View Post
Just like the electrification of cars, it's the future.

The better cars get at seeing each other and the more cars that have better vision, the more quickly this will be normalized.

Tesla is obviously the vanguard here, but the other big names will eventually follow. We're probably 10-15 years out from significantly widespread implementation, but it's coming.
A few wrongful death suits and the whole issue will be put to bed. The personal injury lawyers are drooling for the day autonomous driving gets here.

Cars seeing other cars is a far too simplistic view of the implementation. Sensors and software are fault prone. The objective is to not place two vehicles at the same place at the same time. The best way to accomplish that is to have all vehicles paths preprogrammed to avoid vehicle interaction and have contingency planning in case of errors.
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      10-26-2020, 01:23 PM   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Efthreeoh View Post
Thinking computers can drive cars without hitting each other is well, laughable.
Than lough away.



Tesla is nowhere near this level of sensory based awareness.

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Originally Posted by antzcrashing View Post
If anyone can pull this off it is Tesla, but it wont be easy it wont be quiet.
I disagree. You've seen a lot of tesla autopilot crashes. But Waymo has only been hit by another car. It never hit anyone else. Part of it is less mileage on the fleet, but the tech plays a bigger role.

That's because Waymo have the right sensorics combination to map out the objects around them. Something Tesla can not achieve in the next 25 years with only using cameras. Or more specifically without the use of lidar.

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