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      07-01-2019, 12:52 PM   #2113
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      07-01-2019, 12:59 PM   #2114
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      07-02-2019, 07:57 AM   #2115
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I get that there is a push for electric cars in the near future but a EV runs on a battery. A rechargeable battery, by current design, has a finite shelf-life of X amount of cycles, before it can no longer hold the original power capacity.

So you'll telling me that there is going to be enough production of batteries, new and replacements, out there to sustain a majority of the free world's demand for electric vehicles, if there is a substantial switch over made from ICE.

I believe BMW is right; the fascination and good intentions of electric vehicles are there but consumers are naturally reluctant to embrace a new technology unless there is a big pay off over what they're use to. An EV doesn't yet have enough pizazz to swoon over skeptical buyers.

I look forward to owing an EV one day but I wouldn't yet be too worried about the ICE's future in this world.
I think your "X cycles" needs X to be defined.

E.g. Samsung (makes the battery in the i3) estimates that the battery in the i3 will be cycled out at ~526,000 miles.

What percent of cars do you think make it to 526,000 miles?
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      07-02-2019, 08:10 AM   #2116
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Originally Posted by Obioban View Post
I think your "X cycles" needs X to be defined.

E.g. Samsung (makes the battery in the i3) estimates that the battery in the i3 will be cycled out at ~526,000 miles.

What percent of cars do you think make it to 526,000 miles?
They use a lithium ion battery that can last for up to 6 years, mileage undetermined. Pretty robust cell units.

It's still a battery and has to the potential to wear out, however reasonable, with a cost to replace around 12 - $15,000, so that in itself put it in the negative column, IMO.

I'm sure the quality and longevity of the battery would improve as the technology process but for now, it's still just a niche product.
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      07-03-2019, 11:13 AM   #2117
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Poochie View Post
They use a lithium ion battery that can last for up to 6 years, mileage undetermined. Pretty robust cell units.

It's still a battery and has to the potential to wear out, however reasonable, with a cost to replace around 12 - $15,000, so that in itself put it in the negative column, IMO.

I'm sure the quality and longevity of the battery would improve as the technology process but for now, it's still just a niche product.
Lol, where are you getting 6 years from? The battery warranty goes years beyond that, and nobody with 6 year old i3ís (they went on sale in 2013) is having battery age out issues.

Batteries certainly are wear item. But, if theyíre lasting well in excess of the normal service life of a car, IMO thatís a non issue... especially in this modern area of non serviceable ICE cars (e.g. every modern Bmw).
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      07-03-2019, 11:31 AM   #2118
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Quote:
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Poochie View Post
They use a lithium ion battery that can last for up to 6 years, mileage undetermined. Pretty robust cell units.

It's still a battery and has to the potential to wear out, however reasonable, with a cost to replace around 12 - $15,000, so that in itself put it in the negative column, IMO.

I'm sure the quality and longevity of the battery would improve as the technology process but for now, it's still just a niche product.
Lol, where are you getting 6 years from? The battery warranty goes years beyond that, and nobody with 6 year old i3's (they went on sale in 2013) is having battery age out issues.

Batteries certainly are wear item. But, if they're lasting well in excess of the normal service life of a car, IMO that's a non issue... especially in this modern area of non serviceable ICE cars (e.g. every modern Bmw).
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      07-03-2019, 11:57 AM   #2119
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Today I learned that every EV is a Nissan Leaf
(An EV, mind you, that is known to have the worst battery longevity of all EVs because they gave the battery no thermal management).

Chevy bolt, Tesla’s, BMW i3, etc, all have >= 8 year and >=100,000 mile battery warranties.

You didn’t mention where you’re getting your “6 year lifespan” on batteries, btw.
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      07-03-2019, 12:09 PM   #2120
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EV biggest hurtle right now in my opinion is the low demand on the used market, shown by extreme depreciation. Tesla is a bit of a novelty but its going to catch up to them.
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      07-03-2019, 12:12 PM   #2121
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AlpineX View Post
EV biggest hurtle right now in my opinion is the low demand on the used market, shown by extreme depreciation. Tesla is a bit of a novelty but its going to catch up to them.
I donít think thatíll end till the rapid year over year improvement ends. I believe Tesla has dodged it by giving owners of older versions many of the new features via software update.
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      07-03-2019, 02:37 PM   #2122
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Originally Posted by AlpineX View Post
EV biggest hurtle right now in my opinion is the low demand on the used market, shown by extreme depreciation. Tesla is a bit of a novelty but its going to catch up to them.
Unlike the traditional car, the EV is heavily incentivized when new. Right now it makes more sense to lease a brand new EV with the fed tax credit and state credits than to get a used one. You get a new car warranty and all the latest tech, which right now is progressing more than a traditional car. The secondary market, therefor, does not behave the same way as the ice and cannot be used as a barometer in the same way. Lower prices are expected since depreciation should be compared against the selling price after federal and state rebates.
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      07-03-2019, 03:01 PM   #2123
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Unlike the traditional car, the EV is heavily incentivized when new. Right now it makes more sense to lease a brand new EV with the fed tax credit and state credits than to get a used one. You get a new car warranty and all the latest tech, which right now is progressing more than a traditional car. The secondary market, therefor, does not behave the same way as the ice and cannot be used as a barometer in the same way. Lower prices are expected since depreciation should be compared against the selling price after federal and state rebates.
Still you can't ignore that with current tech, they retain relatively little value after few miles. Leased, incentivized, or not.
I cant imagine owning a car that has such a low mileage expectation overall.
And unlike other cars, tesla somehow gets away with advertising the price after the government subsidies. Never understood that. Someone correct me if I'm wrong there.
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      07-03-2019, 03:41 PM   #2124
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The difference is you can’t compare to the new price because nobody pays MSRP. If people are getting $20k off new, the used car has to be cheaper still to compete with that (nor is that all depreciation, since people didn’t pay it to start).
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      07-03-2019, 04:02 PM   #2125
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Normal incentives are different than government subsidies. But we are not going to blame the govt for the low demand at 40k miles and 3 years old. The fact is that used cars compete against each other for value, the same reason a 10 year old Lexus costs the same as a 6 year old Euro. I'm not contesting your point, but when (if?) The subsidies lessen or go away, the used market is not going to have a noticeable uptick.
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      07-03-2019, 04:27 PM   #2126
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I guess we’ll see in 5-10 years
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      07-03-2019, 04:46 PM   #2127
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I guess weíll see in 5-10 years
The winners in 10 years will be your e46s
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      07-03-2019, 05:02 PM   #2128
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Poochie View Post
They use a lithium ion battery that can last for up to 6 years, mileage undetermined. Pretty robust cell units.

It's still a battery and has to the potential to wear out, however reasonable, with a cost to replace around 12 - $15,000, so that in itself put it in the negative column, IMO.

I'm sure the quality and longevity of the battery would improve as the technology process but for now, it's still just a niche product.
The Prius that have been out there for 12 years are still mostly running on the orignal batteries, and that's 12 yo tech in a field thats still so fresh the paint has not yet dried. Thus far, at the exception of the Leaf fiasco, there has been no indication of a looming battery apocalypse.
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      07-03-2019, 05:09 PM   #2129
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Originally Posted by AlpineX View Post
Still you can't ignore that with current tech, they retain relatively little value after few miles. Leased, incentivized, or not.
I cant imagine owning a car that has such a low mileage expectation overall.
And unlike other cars, tesla somehow gets away with advertising the price after the government subsidies. Never understood that. Someone correct me if I'm wrong there.
Don't you see the huge advantage here? You are thinking of depreciation in terms of financing a new car instead of leasing them, yet the current BMW leases for the i3 tend to have a very good residuals built into it that outperforms the market. The beauty of this scenario is that it keeps lease payments low. The secondary market can take advantage of the large market depreciation to render the used vehicles affordable to more people. That's a win-win for both used car buyers and new car leasers. Moral of the story: do not finance EV's. Lease them.
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      07-03-2019, 05:15 PM   #2130
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Meeni View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Poochie View Post
They use a lithium ion battery that can last for up to 6 years, mileage undetermined. Pretty robust cell units.

It's still a battery and has to the potential to wear out, however reasonable, with a cost to replace around 12 - $15,000, so that in itself put it in the negative column, IMO.

I'm sure the quality and longevity of the battery would improve as the technology process but for now, it's still just a niche product.
The Prius that have been out there for 12 years are still mostly running on the orignal batteries, and that's 12 yo tech in a field thats still so fresh the paint has not yet dried. Thus far, at the exception of the Leaf fiasco, there has been no indication of a looming battery apocalypse.
Yes, because now less than 1% of the driving population owns an EV; people are now beginning to open up to the technology, so I wasn't exactly expecting the Armageddon. But what happens when EV becomes a fact of life.

Look, maybe my worries about the battery are a little unfounded but the fact is, it still operates solely with a finite battery and that comes with its own set of cons of which I can't articulate in a post.

I would hate to be ignorant on facts, so if you can prove me wrong, throw it at the fridge and see what sticks. I am always willing accept new information to replace the old, without biases.
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      07-03-2019, 05:33 PM   #2131
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Yes, because now less than 1% of the driving population owns an EV; people are now beginning to open up to the technology, so I wasn't exactly expecting the Armageddon. But what happens when EV becomes a fact of life.

Look, maybe my worries about the battery are a little unfounded but the fact is, it still operates solely with a finite battery and that comes with its own set of cons of which I can't articulate in a post.

I would hate to be ignorant on facts, so if you can prove me wrong, throw at the fridge and see what sticks. I am always willing accept new information to replace the old, without biases.
A battery swap is less complicated than an engine replacement. It can be made affordable. I'd even argue that there might come a time when a "gas station" is merely a station that swaps your spent battery out for a fully charged one. In fact, I've already used one. I was in a small island in the South Pacific and the porter was driving us around in an electric trike. He ran out of juice and pulled into a lot where dozens of batteries were charging. 5 minutes later they swapped out out battery and we were on our way.
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      07-03-2019, 05:37 PM   #2132
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BMW has a residual for i3 that outperforms the market? That sounds like a cost to the manufacturer in order to move inventory. Another example of doctored demand imo. Don't get me wrong, i am a big fan of i3, seriously consider owning one someday.
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      07-03-2019, 06:27 PM   #2133
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i3 sales are doing reasonably well at this point, outside of the USA.

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      07-03-2019, 07:27 PM   #2134
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BMW has a residual for i3 that outperforms the market? That sounds like a cost to the manufacturer in order to move inventory. Another example of doctored demand imo. Don't get me wrong, i am a big fan of i3, seriously consider owning one someday.
They also periodically have huge utility discounts if you buy. Walk in with your electric bill, get $10,000 knocked off your sticker price automatically. I was able to negotiate my $53k 2018 i3 to just a tad under $40k last year, even before applying the tax credits. It was also the only time I've seen a dealer not even attempt to upsell me a different more expensive model.

You should get one. With a normal yearly 13k commuter miles you save $1200-$1500 on gas alone.
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